Issuing his annual predictions for the year to come Tuesday, Bill Gates said 2024 will be a “turning point.”
Gates, the billionaire co-founder of Microsoft, said in the 10-page letter that he expects to see more innovations in artificial intelligence, a breakthrough in infant malnutrition, advances in climate change talks and defining elections around the world.
Ahead of 2023, Gates projected the world could recover lost ground on polio eradication, AI-powered ultrasounds could help save mothers and their babies, gene therapy could help treat AIDS and better buildings would combat climate change.
With a $118.5 billion net worth, according to Forbes, Gates is the seventh richest person on the planet. As former Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos settles in Miami, a move he announced last month, Gates will become the richest person in Washington.
Gates and ex-wife, Melinda French Gates, have donated billions of dollars to a variety of causes through the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Last year, he announced he would give away virtually his entire fortune through the foundation. “I will move down and eventually off of the list of the world’s richest people,” he said in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter.
Artificial intelligence
Gates’ forecast on AI goes beyond last year’s ultrasound prediction, asserting that AI progress will broadly improve global health while enabling innovation in developed and developing countries.
“Artificial intelligence is about to accelerate the rate of new discoveries at a pace we’ve never seen before,” Gates wrote.
AI could help communities around the world with combating antibiotic resistant diseases, helping non-English speakers manage high-risk pregnancies and making medical information easier to access for health workers.
Still, he said, “there is a long road ahead for projects like these.” Hurdles include scaling the technology without sacrificing quality and ensuring functionality over time.
“If we make smart investments now, AI can make the world a more equitable place,” Gates wrote.
While no longer CEO, Gates remains an adviser at Microsoft. This year, the tech giant moved aggressively to incorporate generative AI into its products, including the search engine Bing and browser Edge through a partnership with ChatGPT-maker OpenAI.
Gates predicts the general population in high-income countries is between 18 to 24 months away from wide AI use. Elsewhere, Gates expects that number to be three years.
Global health advancements
The world is near a breakthrough in using gut microbiome supplements to address malnutrition in children, according to Gates.
“Feeding infants this probiotic helps them move their microbiome into that positive state so they can grow up and achieve their full potential,” Gates wrote. “The next step is (hopefully) broader regulatory approval and scaled-up, high quality, and reliable manufacturing.”
Nutritionists can also look toward developing a probiotic supplement for mothers while the child is still in the womb, he continued.
Nuclear energy
According to Gates, climate change conversations are advancing as more people experience extreme weather.
A lot of the climate change discussions surround clean energy, which increasingly includes nuclear power, said Gates, a longtime backer of nuclear energy.
“In 2024 and beyond, I predict we will see lots of new innovations coming into the marketplace — even in very complicated areas like nuclear,” Gates wrote.
That is good news for TerraPower, the nuclear energy company he founded in 2008. TerraPower’s first plant in Wyoming, which will potentially open in 2030, “will be the most advanced nuclear facility in the world,” he said.
At the COP28 climate change conference in Dubai this year, which Gates attended, he said he was optimistic about the future, based on the rising number of climate technology startups present there compared to eight years ago at the Paris conference.
Overall, Gates wrote, he is optimistic. This decade will be key for upgrading electric grids and improving power transmission to realize the full potential of clean energy, he said. But he added the world still needs to figure out how to get to zero emissions.
Elections around the globe
In 2024, countries that house more than half of the world’s population will hold elections, Gates said. Those countries include the United States, India, Indonesia and South Africa.
The results of the elections will “shape the future of global health and the climate,” according to Gates.
“If I could make one wish for all the people headed to the polls next year — no matter where they live — it would be for them to consider elected leaders who understand the importance of investing in human development around the world,” Gates wrote.
Gates listed the United States President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief launched in 2003 by then-President George W. Bush as one of the models of a program that governments should support.
Nowadays, climate change is a challenge that needs global attention and support, he added. He also warned the world is not ready for another pandemic similar to COVID-19.
“I believe the 2024 elections will be a turning point for both health and climate,” Gates wrote.
Microsoft Philanthropies and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation underwrite some Seattle Times journalism projects.
