Friday night storm could dump over 12 inches of snow in parts of the Southeast

A major winter storm is churning across the Southeast. The snow began to accumulate in Mississippi and Alabama in the morning hours Friday, and by Saturday afternoon as much as 15 inches could be on the ground in parts of the Carolinas. If forecasts are right, Interstate 95 shutdowns are possible, if not likely.

Many parts of the Southeast haven’t seen snow like this in more than a decade.

The coastal winter storm will slice across the South and Mid-Atlantic through Saturday. Accumulating snow and freezing rain are likely, and a subsequent cold snap may allow the ice to hang around in some areas into Tuesday morning.

Winter storm warnings are in effect from Louisiana to Delaware, and the National Weather Service is warning that travel will be severely effected, particularly in Atlanta, where 2 to 4 inches of snow was in the forecast beginning Friday evening.

Atlanta has struggled with winter storms in the past. In January 2014, a winter storm coated the Georgia capital in fewer than 3 inches of snow, but the city was brought to a frozen standstill for three days. People spent nights sleeping in their cars on the interstates or in supermarkets, and children stayed overnight in their schools because the roads were impassable because of the ice. More than 1,200 traffic accidents were reported in Georgia, CBS News reported in 2014.

One of the reasons that storm was so significant (besides the lack of road treatment) was because the temperature dropped well below 32 degrees and stayed there for multiple days. Without temperatures above freezing to melt the accumulated snow and ice, it stayed on untreated roads until warmer weather returned.

With prior travel nightmares in mind, the Weather Service in Atlanta is advising that people stay off the roads, and if they do need to travel, to bring flashlights, food and water in case they are stranded on the side of the road.

In Charlotte and Raleigh, N.C., precipitation was expected to begin Friday afternoon as rain and then turn to sleet and snow in the evening. Ground temperatures have been warm over the past couple days, which means roads should remain passable until the overnight hours when temperatures fall.

The last time Charlotte got significant snow was in February 2004, according to WCNC meteorologist Brad Panovich, when it received 13.2 inches — the third-largest snowstorm in Charlotte history. The city “came to a standstill” when everyone left work and school at the same time as the snow began to fall, Panovich wrote in a recap of the storm.

Charlotte could be looking at a storm similar to the one in 2004, Friday evening into Saturday morning, if all of the meteorological factors come together. Fortunately, this time around, the snow wasn’t going to begin accumulating until after the evening commute Friday, and most of it will fall overnight.

The heaviest snow will fall just north of the center of the storm where the cold air is. Sleet and wintry mix will fall right around the center of the storm, and rain will be the main precipitation type on the warmer, southeastern side. The trick, of course, is that we don’t know exactly where the center of the low pressure system will track. If it tracks east, the heaviest snow will track east, too, and vice versa.

Given the uncertainty, we can say heavy snow — more than 6 inches — is probable from Charlotte to Norfolk, Va., and especially likely around Raleigh and points northeast. In far southeast Virginia, where the most Atlantic moisture will combine with cold air from the northwest, more than 12 inches of snow is possible by Saturday afternoon.

Unfortunately for travelers, the region around I-95 north of Rocky Mount, N.C., appears to be where the heaviest snow will set up. If these forecasts are right, interstate shutdowns are likely along parts of the East Coast’s busiest highway.

Snowfall accumulation forecasts:

Atlanta — 2 to 3 inches

Greenville/Spartanburg, S.C. — 3 to 5 inches

Charlotte — 5 to 9 inches

Raleigh — 6 to 10 inches

Norfolk — 7 to 12 inches

Richmond — 3 to 6 inches