Weather Eye: 2011 starts cold and dry; we’ll see if 2010’s rainfall continues

Happy New Year! At least we had some sunshine in the afternoon on New Year’s Day after considerable cloudiness earlier. That low-pressure system I mentioned here on Thursday did indeed slip south along the Oregon coast on its track to soggy California. Enough moisture moved northward overnight that there were a few snowflakes in the southern part of the county and in the Portland area. I had some on the top of my car early Saturday morning.

And it was cold once again. My low in the Salmon Creek area was a chilly 19 degrees, much like the low on Friday morning. It was a far cry from just one year ago, when Vancouver had a Jan. 1 high of 55 degrees and a low of 42 degrees — compare that with yesterday’s high in Vancouver of 36 degrees and low of 23 degrees.

Looking back through my records, I see it was the coldest New Year’s morning in the past 18 years. My coldest January 1st was in 1979, when it was minus 2 degrees at my Hazel Dell home.

And it was really cold east of the Cascades, with Saturday morning lows of minus 23 in Burns, Ore., and minus 27 degrees in the icebox community of Seneca, Ore. In the Evergreen state, Deer Park dipped to minus 14 degrees and Winthrop to minus 11 degrees.

I recorded 9.35 inches of rain in December and 52.17 inches for 2010, finally a year with above-normal rainfall. After three years of monthly rainfall mostly below average, the pattern changed in 2010 and we will see if that trend continues. We may have entered a cooler and wetter regime.

Looking ahead

I was wishing Saturday that the weather forecast for our near future was a whole lot clearer. The short term is easy, with dry weather continuing through Tuesday. After that, computer models want to break down the high pressure and usher in warmer and wetter conditions off the coast. We may just gradually warm up above freezing and transition out of this cold spell with no snow or ice.

Bottom line: cold and dry until mid-week with possible rain returning.

Then a major change by mid-month, possibly to really cold and snow. Or it may just be rainy or windy. Where’s my dartboard, anyway?

Pat Timm is a local weather specialist. His column appears Tuesdays, Thursdays and Sundays. Reach him at http://weathersystems.com.