WASHINGTON — California has several of the most 2024 competitive races for the U.S. House of Representatives, races crucial to deciding who wins control of the chamber..
Democrats would need to flip four seats nationwide to gain control.
Right now, analysts say that it’s a tossup for either party to take the speaker’s gavel.
Two of the most highly anticipated congressional races in the nation are in the Central Valley’s 13th and 22nd Congressional Districts, along with a few others in Southern California. The 13th and 22nd feature rematches from 2022, the year when California helped secure a razor-thin House majority for Republicans.
Nonpartisan elections analysts at The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate districts on a scale from “likely” to “leans” to “tossup” for either party. Inside Elections also rates races as “tilts,” which are close to tossups.
While analysts rate some races as “likely” going to the incumbent, their elections are still on their radar as still in play.
Not all the analysis organizations agree on exactly how to rate each race. Ratings will likely shift again between now and November.
Here are 10 California congressional races to watch, according to the experts, in numerical order of the district.
3rd Congressional District
(Likely Republican: Cook Political, Inside Elections, Sabato’s Crystal Ball)
Freshman Rep. Kevin Kiley, R-Roseville, is competing with Democrat Jessica Morse, a wildfire resiliency specialist.
The district stretches from the northern Sierra Nevada along the Nevada border into Death Valley.
Kiley served in the California State Assembly from 2016 to 2022. He was elected to Congress in 2022. Morse is the former deputy secretary of the California Natural Resources Agency.
9th Congressional District
(Likely Democratic: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato’s Crystal Ball)
Rep. Josh Harder, D-Tracy, faces Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln in this mainly San Joaquin County district.
Harder has served in Congress since 2019; he unseated a Republican congressman from Harder’s hometown of Turlock in the 2018 election. Previously, he worked in venture capital at Bessemer Venture Partners and taught business at Modesto Junior College.
Lincoln has been mayor since 2021. He served in the U.S. Marine Corps and on Marine One during President George W. Bush’s administration. Before becoming mayor, he was a district manager for a private security company and an executive administrator for his local church.
13th Congressional District
(Tossup: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato’s Crystal Ball)
Farmer-turned-freshman Rep. John Duarte, R-Modesto, beat then-Assemblyman Adam Gray, D-Merced, by 564 votes in 2022. It was one of the closest House races that year, and the 2024 rematch is expected to be one of the most competitive too.
Gray served in the Assembly for a decade before he left as he pursued a congressional bid. Duarte is a farmer and businessman.
The district, which includes all of Merced County and chunks of Madera, Stanislaus, Fresno and San Joaquin counties, has more registered Democrats than Republicans.
It would have voted for President Joe Biden over former President Donald Trump in 2020 by 11 percentage points had current congressional maps been in place. Legislative districts were redrawn after the 2020 election based on census data.
Both the 13th and 22nd are Latino-majority voting-age districts.
Compared to other California districts, each tends to have low turnout, meaning older, white, conservative voters disproportionately influence elections there. This trend has historically been true even in November presidential elections, when turnout is typically at its best here.
22nd Congressional District
(Tossup: The Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball)
(Tilts Republican: Inside Elections)
Rep. David Valadao, R-Hanford, and former Assemblyman Rudy Salas, D-Bakersfield, are also set for a close November rematch.
In 2022, Valadao beat Salas by 3 percentage points. Valadao has faced several tough races since he was first elected to Congress in 2012. He lost his seat in 2018 and won it back in 2020.
Salas served in the Assembly for a decade before leaving to pursue a congressional seat.
The 22nd, which also has more registered Democrats than Republicans and would have picked Biden by 13 percentage points in 2020, includes most of Kings County and parts of Tulare and Kern counties.
27th Congressional District
(Tossup: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato’s Crystal Ball)
Rep. Mike Garcia, R-Santa Clarita, represents the northern Los Angeles County district and is running against a new 2024 challenger: Democrat George Whitesides, former CEO of Virgin Galactic, a spaceflight company.
Garcia entered Congress via a special election in 2020. He is a Navy veteran. He had faced the same challenger, former Assemblywoman Christy Smith, in each election until this cycle.
Whitesides was chief of staff of NASA in former President Barack Obama’s administration.
40th Congressional District
(Likely Republican: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato’s Crystal Ball)
Rep. Young Kim, R-La Habra, who has represented this area since 2021, faces Democrat Joe Kerr, who served as an Orange County firefighter for over three decades.
The 40th holds parts of Orange, San Bernardino and Riverside counties.
41st Congressional District
(Tossup: The Cook Political Report)
(Tilts Republican: Inside Elections)
(Leans Republican: Sabato’s Crystal Ball)
Rep. Ken Calvert, R-Corona, and Democrat Will Rollins, a former federal prosecutor, are on the ballot again in this Riverside County district.
The Republican, first sworn into Congress in 1993, had his closest House race in over a decade against Rollins in 2022. Calvert won by less than 4 percentage points.
45th Congressional District
(Tossup: The Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball)
(Tilts Republican: Inside Elections)
Rep. Michelle Steel, R-Seal Beach, is facing a challenge from Democrat Derek Tran, a consumer rights lawyer, small business owner and veteran.
The 45th takes in parts of Orange and Los Angeles counties. Steel was first elected to Congress in 2020; she previously was on the Orange County Board of Supervisors, as chair and before that vice chair.
47th Congressional District
(Leans Democratic: The Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball)
(Tilts Democratic: Inside Elections)
Republican Scott Baugh, an attorney who ran here in 2022, and State Sen. Dave Min, D-Irvine, will battle in November to succeed Rep. Katie Porter, D-Irvine.
Baugh was the Republican leader from 1999 to 2000 in the Assembly. He served in the Legislature from 1995 to 2000. Min has been in the Legislature since 2020.
Porter is leaving the Orange County seat after a failed U.S. Senate bid.
49th Congressional District
(Likely Democratic: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato’s Crystal Ball)
Rep. Mike Levin, D-San Juan Capistrano, and Republican Matt Gunderson, a business owner, vie here in November.
The 49th covers northern coastal areas of San Diego County. Levin has held congressional office since 2019.
