Whenever the topic of China comes up for discussion, President Joe Biden’s administration has a talking point waiting in its back pocket: While the U.S. and China are global competitors, Washington seeks to ensure that relations are managed responsibly so “competition doesn’t veer into conflict.”
U.S. officials, from Secretary of State Antony Blinken to national security adviser Jake Sullivan, have used this phrase so often that it has become a predictable tagline at news briefings and public events on U.S.-China policy.
Yet even talking points ring true once in a while. The very real sentiment across the U.S. national security apparatus is that ties with China, the world’s second-largest economy and second-largest military spender, are in a delicate state and need to be handled with the utmost care. Key to this objective is face-to-face communication with the Chinese officials who actually matter.
Not so long ago, getting high-ranking Chinese Communist Party officials on the phone was about as difficult as getting out of Chicago in Friday afternoon traffic. Beijing, irate about then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s 2022 trip to Taiwan, cut off most senior- and working-level communication with Washington on areas as diverse as maritime safety, defense and narcotics.
Then came the 2023 “balloon-gate” episode, in which a large Chinese surveillance balloon meandered over the continental United States, creating a media frenzy that ended only after Biden ordered an F-22 fighter jet to shoot it down.
The frostiness, however, has melted as of late. Both sides seem to have concluded that icing each other out hasn’t done their respective strategies any good. The change of heart isn’t about making nice with the other side as much as it is about minimizing any disagreements that exist.
Last November, Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping met just outside San Francisco and agreed to reopen the dialogue channels that were previously shut down.
There have been so many in-person interactions between U.S. and Chinese officials lately that it’s hard to keep track. If we didn’t know any better, we might think the roller-coaster relationship between Washington and Beijing was on the upswing.
Unfortunately, the bad times are still here. Both powers are using renewed dialogue channels to reiterate their core positions and lecture each other about why the other needs to change their policies.
Indeed, on the big items of dispute — Taiwan, the South China Sea, arms control, the war in Ukraine — the U.S. and China are still talking past one another.
The Taiwan issue is the most fraught, and it’s highly unlikely the U.S. and China will be able to come to any agreement on it in the near future — if ever. The South China Sea is just as fraught, with China pressing its expansive maritime claims through increasingly aggressive tactics and the U.S. continuing to make clear that any armed attack against a U.S. ally such as the Philippines would necessitate a U.S. response.
At first, the war in Ukraine was a tertiary issue for the U.S. and China. Yet as the conflict approaches its third winter, the Biden administration is getting more vocal about the extent of Chinese assistance to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war machine. Last week, Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell told reporters that Beijing was sustaining Russia’s defense-industrial complex. China, unconvincingly, argues that such claims are outright fabrications.
In short, the world’s two top powers are still on the opposite ends of the spectrum over some very significant foreign policy issues. The latest discussions won’t solve them. But the alternative — no discussions — is in reality no alternative at all.
Daniel DePetris is a fellow at Defense Priorities and a foreign affairs columnist for the Chicago Tribune.
