Tight House races make for crowded Most Vulnerable Incumbent list

WASHINGTON — The battle for the House is ultracompetitive one week away from Election Day, with both parties bracing for potential narrow majorities come January but seeing their own paths to victory.

To identify the 10 most vulnerable and rank them, Roll Call’s campaign team quizzed party insiders and interest group leaders over the past two weeks and analyzed district dynamics, polling and candidates’ campaign finances.

Republicans assert that a strong showing by former President Donald Trump, whom the National Republican Congressional Committee said in a Monday memo is at a high point on his image, could help push their candidates to victory.

As with earlier versions of this list published in September, in May, in November, and in May 2023, Republicans from California and New York are well-represented because they dominate the roster of members who won seats in 2022 that in 2020 backed Joe Biden over then-President Donald Trump.

Our final list before the election includes seven Republicans and three Democrats. Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales lists 15 Toss-up races, represented by eight Democrats and seven Republicans, but that does not include three Republicans whose ratings were recently moved to more vulnerable status. Several Democrats who aren’t on the list, including two who have been on our previous lists, Matt Cartwright of Pennsylvania and Don Davis in North Carolina, remain in tight races that are going to be crucial to determining which party wins the majority. Both parties remained heavily invested in those races.

Maine Rep. Jared Golden is another Democrat who finds himself just off the list. A recent NRCC poll shows state Rep. Austin Theriault up 2 points over Golden and Trump is expected to win the district easily. But polling has been scant, and Golden has won tough races before, including in 2020.

GOP Rep. Michelle Steel’s race against Derek Tran in California’s 45th District has also grown increasingly competitive, but she is not on the list.

And four competitive open seats (and therefore not representing a Most Vulnerable Incumbent) in Virginia’s 7th District, California’s 47th, and Michigan’s 7th and 8th, will also be crucial in determining which party controls the House. Inside Elections rates all four as Toss-ups.

Williams remains the most vulnerable House member. The 22nd District, as redrawn earlier this year, set up the district as Democrats’ to lose. They’ve sought to tie Williams to conservative Republicans. Still, Republicans are optimistic Williams is keeping his race against state Sen. John Mannion closer than expected and have tried to tie Mannion to unpopular policies out of Albany and Gov. Kathy Hochul. Both candidates have also had to contend with allegations of improper workplace behavior that have been featured in television ads. An outside investigation found Mannion did not violate the state Senate’s harassment and discrimination policies.

The race between Duarte and Democrat Adam Gray in the agriculture-heavy 13th District was decided by fewer than 600 votes in 2022 and it wasn’t called in Duarte’s favor until Dec. 2. In this year’s rematch, both candidates have emphasized their bipartisan approach to governing and intent to address local concerns such as a lack of affordable housing and water shortages in the San Joaquin Valley. But Gray, a former member of the California Assembly, has a structural advantage: Democrats outnumber Republicans, 42% to 29%, in the majority-Latino district, which runs along Interstate 5 and includes the cities of Modesto and Merced.

D’Esposito has always faced a tough race for reelection, as evidenced by his inclusion on this list over the last 18 months. He’s locked in a rematch against Laura Gillen, a former Hempstead town supervisor who has raised more campaign funds. D’Esposito has had to contend with some tough headlines in the final weeks of the campaign, including allegations that he hired his fiancee’s daughter as well as a woman he was having an affair with. He has called the report detailing those allegations a partisan “hit piece.” Republicans had success on Long Island two years ago and are hoping the same issues that fueled those wins, including crime and immigration, will help D’Esposito hold onto the 4th District.

Bacon has survived plenty of tough races in the past, including in 2022, when he came within 3 percentage points of losing to Democratic state Sen. Tony Vargas. The two men are competing for the seat again but this time, it’s not just the Omaha-centered district’s close political divide that has made Bacon one of the most vulnerable House members. Two abortion-related ballot questions and an influx of spending by national Democrats battling to win the district’s single Electoral College vote also play a role. Democrats say they have a strong and well-organized ground game fueled by enthusiasm while the GOP is staking its hopes on Bacon’s bipartisan reputation. He recently debuted a TV ad featuring an endorsement from Democrat Ann Ashford, who once ran for the seat and is the widow of former Rep. Brad Ashford, whom Bacon defeated in 2016.

Peltola faces Republican Nick Begich, Independence Party candidate John Wayne Howe, and Democrat Eric Hafner, who is currently in prison, on the ranked-choice ballot. She practices her own style of politics in a GOP-heavy state that nevertheless places a premium on political independence: Earlier this month, she was once again endorsed by Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski. Democrats say Peltola has done significant outreach to Native Alaskans, who could emerge as a key voting bloc. But running in a state Trump won in 2020 also presents unique challenges. Republicans say the party has united behind Begich and predict Hafner could play the role of spoiler.

The auto body shop owner from southwestern Washington was a political unknown when she flipped a rural GOP-leaning district in 2022 by emphasizing blue-collar issues. Gluesenkamp Pérez once again faces Joe Kent, the Trump-backed Republican she narrowly beat in 2022. The two candidates have sparred over aid to Ukraine, which Gluesenkamp Pérez backs and Kent opposes, and addressing immigration. Democrats say the fact that the race is even competitive is a tribute to Gluesenkamp Pérez’ political skills, but the GOP believes top-of-the-ticket dynamics in a district Trump won will doom her reelection hopes.

After narrowly defeating progressive Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner two years ago, Chavez-DeRemer faces a new challenge from the political center. Democratic state Rep. Janelle Bynum is hoping to unseat Chavez-DeRemer by focusing on abortion access and kitchen table economic issues. Chavez-DeRemer, the former mayor of Happy Valley, has emphasized her ability to work with Democrats in a swing district Joe Biden won in 2020, while portraying Bynum as a liberal advocate of police reform measures. A poll by Inside Elections last month had Bynum at 41% to Chavez-DeRemer’s 39%, within the margin of error.

In the high desert north of Los Angeles, Garcia is facing a challenge from Democrat George Whitesides, the former CEO of the space tourism company Virgin Galactic. Whitesides has criticized Garcia on abortion rights and for not voting to certify the results of the 2020 election. Garcia has emphasized economics, crime and immigration as key campaign issues. Democrats hold a decisive voter registration edge in the district, which is situated within the expensive LA media market. But a poll released last month by the University of Southern California, Cal State Long Beach and Cal Poly Pomona found the race statistically tied.

Miller-Meeks is a new addition to our most vulnerable list, thanks to a tightening race in southeast Iowa. On paper, Miller-Meeks would appear to have the advantage over Democrat Christina Bohannan: Trump would have won the district by nearly 3 percentage points in 2020, had the current lines been in place, and Miller-Meeks triumphed over Bohannan two years ago. Miller-Meeks has a history of close races; she won her first contest in 2020 by just six votes. Bohannan has focused on abortion access. This is the first election cycle after Iowa’s abortion ban came into effect, which prohibits the procedure after six weeks of pregnancy, before many women know they are pregnant.

Caraveo, a pediatrician from a working class background, won the newly created 8th District seat two years ago by less than a percentage point. This year, she faces Republican state Rep. Gabe Evans, who served as a Black Hawk helicopter pilot and police lieutenant. Both Caraveo and Evans are of Mexican-American heritage and immigration has emerged as a key flashpoint. The district, which stretches from the blue-tinged suburbs north of Denver to more conservative, rural areas, would have been won by Biden in 2020, had the current boundaries been in place.