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A funny thing has happened on the way to Seattle proposing to close a bunch of schools due to plunging enrollment: The enrollment stubbornly failed to plunge.
In an October surprise of sorts, new figures show that the number of kids in classes did not drop as expected. The October enrollment, used to determine state funding, in fact ticked up for the first time since the 2019 school year, before the pandemic touched off an exodus.
The district counts enrollment two ways, one with preschoolers and Running Start high school students, and one without. By the first way, enrollment rose this year versus last by 206 students districtwide. By the second measure, it eked up just 14.
Either way, the totals are well above what was forecast as recently as last month — which was that the school system would continue its bleak pandemic-era spiral down. Outside consultants estimated there’d be a drop of about 600 students this year.
That seemed reasonable given recent history. Seattle schools lost 830 students last year and hemorrhaged 3,700 during the three years prior. So while gaining 14 or 206 may not seem like headline news in a district with 49,000 kids, it is compared to what everybody thought was going to happen.
“It’s notable that the enrollment numbers … already exceed the (highest) figures being communicated by SPS during planning,” wrote Bryan Shalloway, a Seattle data scientist and former high school math teacher who brought the figures to my attention. The actual enrollment of 49,240 tops the worst forecasts by 1,000 students and tops the midrange estimates — considered the most likely — by 400 to 600.
It may not last, as big-city districts all over the country are seeing declining enrollment, in part because of families leaving and lower birthrates. But it’s a crucial sign of a reprieve in this drama.
If nothing else, it’s a pause in the perpetual sense of crisis that hangs over schools. Enrollment isn’t down, at least for right now.
Both preschool and kindergarten classes are bigger than last year, a positive sign. Public preschool is up 2.7 percent, and kindergarten up 1.3 percent. Hanging on to those families, by convincing them to keep going in public schools, is critical.
My plea with school leaders, along with city and state officials, is to use this upside surprise to recalibrate. Mount a positive campaign for the schools. Don’t cut learning options; attract more students by expanding them. Give the people what they want; don’t come at them with a dire story.
Because the story isn’t that dire. Yes, there are budget gaps to be bridged. But getting hundreds more students than expected is like manna from heaven. It could make solving the district’s financial problems a bit easier, as it means more money from the state than projected. But it ought to make solving the district’s public-relations problems a lot easier.
You can take the good news to Olympia and say: “We are a stable school district. The people have spoken. (Now give us some money.)”
I’m not saying the enrollment surprise means zero schools should be closed. But it sure ought to change the conversation. One of the enrollment consultants, William Kendrick, suggested in his report that the pandemic and its aftereffects had made the forecasting business trickier than usual.
“Births should be higher, but they continue to trend lower,” he wrote. “Have young people moved out? Have they stopped having kids and starting families? … Is this the new normal post-COVID?”
This is the thing, it seems, about everything. We still have no clue what the new normal is going to be. Not with schools, mass transit, office work, the state of downtowns, or countless other institutions in American life.
So the bigger import of Seattle’s little October surprise is: Take a breath. Nobody knows anything. It is not the season to do anything rash.
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