BOSTON – If it seems like we’ve got a particularly nail-biting election on our hands this cycle, well, that’s because we do.
The race for the White House has not budged one way or the other in weeks, and continues to proceed with the runners in lock step. Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, according to several recent major polls, remain locked in a statistical tie.
Sunday’s TIPP Tracking poll, the survey which accurately predicted a Trump win in 2016, says the difference between the candidates remains “razor-thin.”
“Today’s TIPP Tracking Poll shows no change, with Trump and Harris tied at 48% for the second consecutive day,” those pollsters wrote.
TIPP noted that may change in the next eight days, but likely not by much, and certainly not outside of their 2.7-point margin of error.
“Just as takeoff and landing are the critical phases of any flight, so is the final stretch of a tracking poll,” they wrote, saying their pollster anticipates a “narrow 4-point range — from Harris +2 to Trump +2 — as both candidates make their final approach toward Election Day.”
An ABC News/Ipsos poll also released on Sunday showed a race that “remains close” and that has been “relatively stable” since at least August.
“If the presidential election were held today, 51% of likely voters say they would support Harris and 47% would back Trump, statistically unchanged from ABC News/Ipsos polling conducted earlier this month,” they wrote of their poll.
A new CBS/YouGov survey showed the pair essentially tied — Harris has a single point lead — and running neck-and-neck across several swing states.
“It’s tied across the composite battleground states collectively, and Harris is down to just a +1 in national vote preference,” CBS wrote of their poll, noting that “Harris had once been at +3 in the battlegrounds in September and it narrowed to +1 two weeks ago. Trump has incrementally erased a 4-point national edge Harris had after their debate.”
Emerson College Polling found a “divided electorate” when they conducted their most recent poll, according to Executive Director of Polling Spencer Kimball.
“In this poll, independents report breaking for Trump 49% to 46% — a reversal from 2020, where they reported voting for Biden by about ten points. Male voters are breaking for Trump by 13 points, 55% to 42%, a larger margin than in 2020, while women break for Harris by ten points, 54% to 44%, underperforming Biden’s support in 2020,” Kimball said.
That poll showed Trump and Harris tied at exactly 49% each.
According to polling aggregation data maintained by RealClearPolitics, on this day in 2016, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was leading Trump by an average of 5.6 points in national polling, and in 2020 President Joe Biden led Trump by 7.4 points.
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