Nearly two-thirds of Washingtonians are concerned about politically motivated violence following this year’s elections, a new poll found.
A similar proportion worry that election disputes would delay the certification of results.
The statewide WA Poll, which surveyed 1,000 Washingtonians Oct. 9-14, also found that concerns over violence, and trust in public officials and institutions to resolve any disputes, differ by party affiliation.
For instance, 7 in 10 respondents who identify as Democrats said they are very or somewhat concerned about postelection violence. About half of Republicans are concerned.
At the same time, two-thirds of Republicans have “some” or “great” confidence in the U.S. Supreme Court to resolve election disputes. Among Democrats, 40% have no confidence in the nation’s highest court on the matter.
Uneasiness among voters comes during a time of increasingly strident rhetoric from both major presidential candidates.
At a town hall in Pennsylvania last week, former President Donald Trump described Democrats as the “enemy from within” and suggested he would use the military against Americans who oppose him.
“They are so bad and frankly, they’re evil,” Trump said, adding that he believed Democrats had “weaponized our elections.”
At a rally in Erie, Pa., this month, Vice President Kamala Harris said Trump was “unstable and unhinged” and “out for unchecked power. That’s what he’s looking for.”
The backdrop to all of this is Trump’s refusal to accept the result of the 2020 presidential election and his promotion of conspiracy theories, which manifested in a pro-Trump mob attacking the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, in an attempt to stop the certification of election results.
Reflecting the partisan divide on violence, voters with more liberal concerns fear an outbreak of violence more than those voting on conservative issues.
Voters whose top issues are abortion, climate change or protecting democracy report being more concerned about violence than those focused on border security, crime or the cost of living, according to the poll.
Among those issues, 43% of respondents who said climate change was their top issue were very concerned about violence, as were 42% of people worried about safeguarding democracy.
Only 11% of people who reported crime as their primary voting concern said the same, and 19% of people looking at border security said the same.
Voter concerns over election violence, disputes
Voters in Washington are worried about the potential for violence during this election, and the ability of public institutions to manage any disputes.
Source: The WA Poll is sponsored by The Seattle Times, KING 5 and the University of Washington’s Center for an Informed Public. Conducted online Oct. 9-14 by SurveyUSA, the WA Poll reached 1,000 adults, including 703 people likely to vote in the general election, using a population sample provided by Lucid Holdings. The respondents were weighted to U.S. census proportions for gender, age, race, education and homeownership. (Mark Nowlin / The Seattle Times)
An April 2024 report by the nonpartisan Council on Foreign Relations said there was “serious risk” of election-related violence this year. It noted that the “far-right” was more likely to use force, but that the “possibility of far-left extremist violence cannot be dismissed.”
The report called on political leaders to prevent and manage extremism, and warned that election-related violence “threatens individual lives and the domestic political stability of the country.”
The report added that any violence following a U.S. election would “embolden autocrats” around the globe, and said the January 2023 violence following the loss of Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro in the capital of Brasília was “inspired” by Trump and Jan. 6.
Though a disputed, potentially violent election is on the minds of most state voters, a majority believe public institutions can deal with it.
Almost half of the poll’s respondents said they have “some confidence” that state or local election officials, or state courts, can resolve the situation, and nearly a quarter have “great confidence” they can.
Just 18% of the poll’s respondents said they have no confidence that state or local election officials, or state courts, can deal with a disputed vote.
Trust in public institutions wanes when looking at federal courts, which 24% of respondents said they had no confidence in, and the U.S. Supreme Court, which a third of respondents reported no confidence in.
Generally, Democrats said they had more confidence in local and state officials, state courts and federal courts than Republicans. Washington is considered one of the bluest states in the nation, where election officials and judges are elected.
Republicans reported greater certainty in the Supreme Court, which has taken a conservative turn, notably on the topic of abortion. Trump successfully appointed three justices during his term in office.
Illegal voting
On another topic, Washingtonians were evenly split on whether noncitizens vote illegally in U.S. elections.
The poll found that 47% of respondents were “not very” or “not concerned at all” about such illegal voting. Another 46% said they were “very” or “somewhat” concerned.
Almost half of people said they believed that such illegal voting happened “regularly” or “occasionally,” 37% said they thought it “almost never” happened and 14% were unsure.
It is illegal for noncitizens to vote in federal elections. The Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act of 1996 prohibited voting by noncitizens, and punishment for doing so includes a year in prison, fines and possible deportation.
According to the Washington Secretary of State’s Office, only U.S. citizens can register to vote in Washington.
According to a November 2020 article by the Cato Institute, a conservative think tank, noncitizens “don’t illegally vote in detectable numbers.”
A tally by the Heritage Foundation, another conservative think tank, found 102 instances of illegal voting by noncitizens between 1999 and 2023. Nineteen instance occurred from 2020 to 2023.
As with the questions about violence and dispute resolution, the results shifted depending on party identity.
Republicans were much more likely to be concerned about illegal voting by noncitizens and of the belief it happened frequently. Democrats generally were not.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, 85% of those polled who said border security was their top issue said they were very concerned about illegal voting, and another 7% said they were somewhat concerned. And 90% of these voters believed such voting regularly or occasionally took place.
The poll is sponsored by The Seattle Times, KING 5 and the University of Washington’s Center for an Informed Public. The margin of error for questions about disputed elections and illegal voting is plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.
