KYIV, Ukraine — President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s plan to end Ukraine’s nearly three-year war with Russia has received mixed reactions from Western allies so far.
The “victory plan” that Zelenskyy has outlined at home and abroad includes a formal invitation for Ukraine to join NATO and permission to use Western long-range missiles to strike military targets in Russia — two steps that Kyiv’s allies have been reluctant to support.
U.S. backing is crucial if Zelenskyy is to get support from other allies for proposals he believes are necessary to strengthen Ukraine’s position on the battlefield and ahead of any peace negotiations. But analysts say the Biden administration is unlikely to make a decision before the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 5, as it may not appeal to voters.
“They seem to be just doing very little now and waiting for the election,” said Phillips O’Brien, professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews, Scotland. “So much of the strategy will live or die in Washington.”
Analysts said the plan is a step in the right direction for Ukraine’s military efforts. They also described it as ambitious, given allies’ fears of escalation with nuclear-armed Russia.
Ukraine has previously secured Western support for requests once deemed unrealistic, such as Patriot air defense systems and F-16 jets.
Zelenskyy laid out the five-point plan as Ukraine’s troops struggle to hold back Russia’s slow but steady advances in eastern Ukraine. The plan includes three “secret annexes” that were presented only to some leaders. It also addresses partners’ concerns about Ukraine’s strategy after the failed summer 2023 counteroffensive.
Zelenskyy described the main goal as “to strengthen us and force Russia to come to the negotiating table with all partners.”
Plan withholds specifics
The plan won’t immediately alter the battlefield situation, but it will help Ukraine to wear down Russia.
“I think people were potentially expecting some sort of more operational plan on winning the war,” said Justin Crump, a former British tank commander who heads Sibylline, a strategic advisory firm. “That’s a naive opinion to have expected a plan to have provided operational details that would obviously be of use to the enemy.”
U.S. reaction was muted and noncommittal, though it did issue a new $425 million package of security assistance for Ukraine the day that Zelenskyy presented the plan to lawmakers.
“It’s not my position to publicly evaluate his plan,” Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said. “We have been supporting him by providing security assistance in a major way for two and a half years. We are going to continue to do that.”
In Europe, reactions ranged from categorical opposition to strong support.
French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot said Saturday in Kyiv that he will work with Ukrainian officials to rally other nations to get behind the proposal.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz stood by his refusal to supply Taurus long-range cruise missiles to Kyiv.
“Our position is clear: We are supporting Ukraine as strongly as possible,” he said. “At the same time, we are taking care that NATO does not become a party to the war so that this war doesn’t culminate in an even bigger catastrophe.”
