WA voters poised to reject two initiatives, accept other two, according to poll

“Undecideds tend to vote No,” Elway said. Undecided voters often are those who find the language confusing or who feel that they need to know more about the measures, and they default to No. “You have to convince them to vote Yes. Voting No is for the status quo.”

The poll of 401 likely voters in Washington was conducted Oct. 8-12. The answers on initiatives have a margin of error of plus or minus 5% with a 95% confidence level, which means if the same poll were conducted 100 times, the results would be within five percentage points of these results at least 95 times.

All four initiatives were sponsored by Let’s Go Washington, a conservative political action committee led by Brian Heywood, a hedge fund manager from Redmond. The group gathered signatures to bring six initiatives to the Legislature (the Legislature passed three of them). The group also collected more than 500,000 signatures statewide to bring I-2066 on natural gas to the ballot.

By the numbers

According to the poll, the two initiatives that would have the biggest effect on the state budget were lagging in support.

Initiative 2109 would repeal the capital gains tax on the profit from the sales of stocks and bonds over $250,000. It would not apply to real estate or retirement accounts. The money goes toward K-12 education, higher education, school construction, early learning and child care. About 56% of respondents told our pollsters that they would vote against repealing the capital gains tax, which was approved in 2021. About 29% said they would vote Yes to repeal, and about 15% said they were undecided. Support was similar to the September poll, when 30% of voters polled said they would vote Yes, but was down significantly from May, when 47% of voters indicated support.

Initiative 2117 would repeal the state’s cap-and-invest program, which requires polluting companies to purchase carbon credits and reinvests the money into programs and projects that reduce greenhouse-gas emissions or repair the environment. About 46% said they would vote against repealing this program. About 31% said they would vote Yes to repeal and 23% said they were undecided. Like I-2109, the trend was similar, with 30% of voters indicating support in September, falling from 41% in May.

Initiative 2066, which would prohibit laws that discourage natural gas use or promote electrification, and which would instead require utilities to provide natural gas to customers, was the only initiative that got a clear majority of support, with 51% saying they would vote Yes and 28% saying they would vote against it. About 20% remained undecided. Support for this has risen since September, when 47% of respondents to the Cascade PBS/Elway Poll said they supported it.

Initiative 2124 would make participation in the state’s long-term care insurance elective by default, and permit opt-outs at any time. Critics of the initiative say making it easier for workers to opt out of the program, which launched and started collecting the payroll tax last year, would essentially dismantle its financial footing and make the program insolvent. While the initiative led in this poll 45% to 33%, a large number of respondents were still undecided, 22%. However, this initiative has gained support since September, when 39% said they supported repealing the program. The new numbers are more similar to May, when 47% said they would vote to repeal.

The poll talked to 27 people who identified as independents, and they were the most undecided on the initiatives, with between 30% and 44% undecided on all four statewide ballot measures. The 42 respondents identified as leaning Democrat were also undecided on natural gas, cap-and-invest and long-term care, with between 29% and 34% having not yet made up their minds on those three measures. However, that group strongly rejected the repeal of the capital gains tax.

Republicans and leaning Republicans, on the other hand, have firmer support for the initiatives, with at least 67% expressing support for all four. However, according to our poll, this group is a smaller percentage of Washington’s voters – just over a quarter of likely voters told our pollsters they would register as a Republican if they had to register a party.

The people will decide

Some poll respondents found the initiatives confusing because voting No is a vote in support of the state programs in question.

“They are worded too precariously, that you don’t know if answering Yes is more negative or affirmative,” said Linda Elliott, an independent voter in Mason County who leans Republican. “If you’re answering No, are you saying Yes? It’s very convoluted.”

Elliott, a small-business owner and property manager who worries about being able to afford the minimum wage, said initiatives have been getting more confusing over the past few years.

“I have to talk it out with someone,” she said, though she said talking about politics with neighbors in recent years has become taboo.

“I just got my voters’ pamphlet. Hopefully I’ll find somebody to bounce it off of eventually. People are afraid to talk about politics anymore. It’s really frightening.”

Other respondents said they felt like they needed to do more research to find out whether they supported the programs.

Leora Schwitters of Issaquah said she already decided to vote No on the initiatives that would repeal the cap-and-invest program and ban prohibitions on natural gas.

“I tend to go with progressive views on clean energy,” said Schwitters, a retired public school teacher who now runs a nonprofit choral group.

She said she remains undecided about the long-term care ballot measure. “There are some things I like about it, some things I don’t like about it.”

She doesn’t expect to be undecided by the time she turns in her ballot.

“Once I get my ballot, I grab my ballot and I grab my voters’ guide and I go different resources, like the Progressive Voters Guide,” she said. “That’s, like, when it’s gotta get done.”

Schwitters also said seeing the sponsors and endorsements is also a big influence in her support.

Campaigns worry about confusion

The campaigns both for and against the measures say reaching out to undecided voters in the home stretch will be key.

Both sides also find fault with the ballot measure wording – blaming partisan fights over what got included in the ballot measure language and voter guides – and admit that it’s a challenge when talking to voters.

“Our own staunch supporters are confused by the ballot language and unsure how they should vote,” said Let’s Go Washington spokesperson Hallie Balch. The campaign has a slogan that covers all four – “Vote Yes, Pay Less,” to simplify the messaging, and they continue to canvass and hold events to energize volunteers.

“The most important thing that they can do at this point is talk to neighbors,” Balch said. “Seeing political ads doesn’t change my mind. It’s the conversations I have with people. About how they can’t afford gas. And how expensive food is.”

Opponents of the initiatives also say that the wording also obscures the intent of the ballot measures.

“The point we’ve been making all along is that these measures are constructed in ways that are fundamentally deceptive and destructive,” said Sandeep Kaushik, a consultant for Defend Washington, which opposes all four of the measures and coordinates with campaigns against the individual measures. Kaushik says the campaigners against the measures have had success when they speak with voters about what services will get cut if the measures pass.

“Certainly there’s confusion among voters and an initial lack of understanding of what these measures would do. For the No campaigns, the key is to communicate with voters and inform them about what the implications of these measures would actually be.”