Paz: Are Dems ‘losing’ Latino voters?

Will 2024 become the year that finally disproves the idea that demographics are destiny?

For roughly the first two decades of this century, the idea of a rising, permanent liberal Democratic majority buoyed the hopes of liberal politicians, Democratic strategists and progressive activists. A younger, diversifying electorate, the eroding power of white voters, the rise in college education and growth of cities, and integration of nonwhite immigrants into the electorate would make it all but impossible for a conservative, nativist, elite Republican Party to hold on to power.

Barack Obama’s victories proved as much — and if it weren’t for the Electoral College, Hillary Clinton might have, too. These assumptions remained widely accepted on the left, despite warnings from some, until Nov. 3, 2020 — when Florida was quickly called for Donald Trump. Hispanic-dominant parts of the state were swinging right, as were overwhelmingly Hispanic counties in Texas, and Democratic congressional candidates were faring worse than expected in diverse counties.

But what’s driving this shift? In political circles, it’s often framed as a question of Democrats “losing” Latinos. That Trump seems to be narrowing margins and increasing vote share as he demonizes migrants makes this a particularly vexing question.

There’s certainly some merit to this line of thinking. Indeed, the Democratic Party has changed since Trump’s rise, and some of those shifts may have alienated Latino voters. And Trump himself, despite overt racism, does seem to have struck a chord with some Latino voters.

But asking what Democrats have done to “lose” Latino voters and what Republicans have done to “win” them comes with an unspoken assumption: that it’s primarily the parties that are changing, rather than Latinos themselves.

It may turn out that the “Hispanic challenge” that worried conservatives two decades ago is not all that real. Nor is the progressive hope that diversity would lead to surefire ideological or political victory. Hispanic and Latino Americans may simply be following the trends of previous waves of immigrant communities: assimilating, diffusing across the country, and becoming as ideologically and politically diverse as native-born and white Americans are.

Yes, the diversification of America’s Latinos poses challenges for progressives and liberals in electoral politics, but it also raises the specter that Latino identity may not be preordained to last forever.

Trends within the country’s Latino and Hispanic population suggest that these Americans may be in the midst of a transition, a social and cultural shift that will have political impacts.

More Hispanic and Latino Americans are eligible to vote than ever before: In 2000, just 7.4 percent of eligible voters were Hispanic or Latino. In 2024, that share has doubled.

This growth is no longer coming from new immigrants naturalizing — it’s being driven by the birth of new generations of Latino and Hispanic Americans who are becoming further removed from the immigrant experience and, in turn, becoming assimilated and acculturated to the American experience.

Similar to Italian Americans, Hispanic and Latino Americans are also gradually dropping their Spanish-language preferences, especially by the second or third generation. The notion of a distinct Hispanic and Latino identity has also been gradually shrinking.

One of the most striking findings tracked by Pew Research Center in the lead-up to Trump’s election in 2016 was the way different generations of Americans of Hispanic descent identified. Those closest to the immigrant experience were essentially guaranteed to identify as “Hispanic” or “Latino.” But this identity faded with subsequent generations.

While these social and cultural changes have been happening over the last few decades, we may only now, in the 2020s, be seeing what kind of political and electoral effects they will have on the rest of the nation. The 2020 election, and whatever happens in November, may be the first indications of a long-term realignment, or they may just be Trump-specific disruptions that will settle down as a younger, more progressive-minded Latino electorate rises.

Christian Paz is a columnist for Vox.com.