A new poll offers a measure of how much the presidential race has changed among Washington voters in the last three months.
Yes, former President Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, still stands to lose in one of the bluest states in the country. But by how much?
In a mid-July poll, 50 percent of likely Washington voters were backing President Joe Biden, then still in the race, compared to Trump’s 36 percent. With Vice President Kamala Harris taking over after Biden dropped out, support for the Democratic ticket has risen to 57 percent among likely voters contacted between Oct. 9 and Oct. 14, giving Harris a 22-point lead.
Harris has a strong lead with Washington voters
About 57 percent of surveyed Washington voters would vote for Kamala Harris if the election was held today, while 35 percent would vote for Donald Trump.
Source: The WA Poll is sponsored by The Seattle Times, KING 5 and the University of Washington’s Center for an Informed Public. Conducted online Oct. 9-14 by SurveyUSA, the WA Poll reached 1,000 adults, including 703 people likely to vote in the general election, using a population sample provided by Lucid Holdings. The respondents were weighted to U.S. census proportions for gender, age, race, education and homeownership. (Mark Nowlin / The Seattle Times)
The poll shows virtually no gender gap in Washington, unlike nationally, where Harris is more popular with women and Trump with men. The findings also depict the vice president winning by large margins among the state’s moderates and independents, and 10 percent of respondents who voted for Trump in 2020 said they plan to support Harris this year. She is even ahead among voters who say crime is their top issue, normally a winning one for Republicans.
The economy is another issue that often breaks for conservatives, but 56 percent of respondents said they trust Harris more than Trump to improve matters, despite Republicans blaming Biden administration policies for an increase in inflation.
Washington voters don’t appear to be writing off that critique entirely, though. Trump has a 7-point lead among those who say cost of living is a top issue. And affordability concerns may be resonating particularly strongly with younger voters , who appear to be somewhat more open to Trump.
The poll is sponsored by The Seattle Times, KING 5 and the University of Washington’s Center for an Informed Public. The margin of error for questions about presidential candidate preferences is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
“Harris has definitely been this kind of shot in the arm for us,” said Shasti Conrad, chair of the Washington State Democratic Party, adding the poll tracks with enthusiasm she’s observed canvassing the state.
Despite Washington’s status as a Democratic stronghold, concerns about Biden’s age and mental acuity had been apparent, noted Sandeep Kaushik, a Democratic political analyst.
The apparent surge in Democratic support puts Harris on track to win Washington by at least as great a margin as Biden did in 2020, when he got 58 percent of the vote, to Trump’s 39 percent.
Trump still leads handily among voters who say border security is a top issue, with 88 percent vouching support for the former president. Trump has repeatedly cast illegal immigration as a major threat to the country’s safety and well-being.
But the border and cost of living are the only issues that give him an edge among those the poll asked about, including reproductive rights, diplomatic relations, homelessness and immigration. (The wording in questions matter, with voters indicating different preferences depending on whether they were asked about “immigration” or “border security.”)
Confidence in Harris on public safety could be linked to the vice president’s newfound comfort in stressing her previous role as a prosecutor, Kaushik said. You won’t hear her talking about defunding the police, for instance, an idea that gained popularity during the racial justice protests that coincided with her last presidential campaign in 2020.
“She’s very explicitly not going anywhere near that stuff,” Kaushik said.
That could be helping her with moderates and independents in Washington, as might endorsements from Republicans including former Vice President Dick Cheney and his daughter Liz Cheney, a onetime Wyoming Congress member.
“The question is, does that have any kind of implication for the national picture?” Kaushik said.
Top issues for Washington voters in the presidential race
The Democratic consultant also noted Harris appears to be closing what had been a gap on the economy favoring Trump. Kaushik credits policies the vice president has put out that have a “populist tinge,” like building three million new homes over four years and expanding down payment assistant to first-time homebuyers.
Still, Justin Matheson, a Republican political analyst, attributes housing unaffordability and overall economic concerns to the poll’s finding that Trump has more support among voters under 50, with 42 percent saying they will vote for him — roughly the same percentage as among those 18 to 34 — compared to 28 percent of those 50 and over.
“The youth right now are kind of seeing a future that is uncertain for them,” Matheson said.
Question: Which of the two candidates running for president — Donald Trump or Kamala Harris — would you trust most to improve the following issues?
Source: The WA Poll is sponsored by The Seattle Times, KING 5 and the University of Washington’s Center for an Informed Public. Conducted online Oct. 9-14 by SurveyUSA, the WA Poll reached 1,000 adults, including 703 people likely to vote in the general election, using a population sample provided by Lucid Holdings. The respondents were weighted to U.S. census proportions for gender, age, race, education and homeownership. (Mark Nowlin / The Seattle Times)
Conrad, the state Democratic Party chair, said she was surprised by the finding related to age. “That is not matching what we’re hearing and seeing,” she said. But she said, “it’s something we’re going to really need to do some work on to unpack what’s going on.”
Another surprising finding shows Harris leading in rural and Eastern Washington. This runs counter to numerous past elections in which Republicans have swept those parts of the state, suggesting the result is likely related to polling challenges.
“Republican voters in solidly blue states aren’t especially enthusiastic at the moment, so it’s likely that even with the overall weighting of data, the rural respondents who agree to take the survey are more left-leaning than the rural population as a whole,” said Ken Alper of SurveyUSA, which conducted the poll.
Conrad, however, draws hope that Democrats may be making inroads in the more rural, eastern part of the state. She said she saw Harris yard signs in Yakima recently and got a warm reception by more people than expected when doorbelling for national and local races. In Walla Walla, she said she spotted a woman wearing a Harris-Walz camouflage hat.
Even if Washington goes according to past elections, with the Cascades largely separating Republicans and Democrats, some battlegrounds exist, according to Matheson: Clallam County on the Olympic Peninsula, considered a national bellwether that flipped Democratic in the last presidential election, and Snohomish and Pierce counties.
More poll results will be released in the coming days on subjects including the governor’s race, initiatives on Washington’s November ballot and state spending on education.
