OLYMPIA — Washington has a new governor, a mix of new lawmakers and a multibillion-dollar problem.
The exact partisan makeup of the state Legislature is still fuzzy as ballots continue to get counted, but Democrats are expected to hold on to strong majorities when legislators convene in Olympia in two months. They might even pick up a seat or two.
The session ahead won’t be smooth sailing. Lawmakers could face a budget shortfall of between $10 billion to $12 billion over the next four years.
Democrats might look at new taxes to fill that gap, which is sure to get pushback from their counterparts across the aisle. And it remains to be seen what a second Trump administration will mean for Washington, though federal funding could be at risk.
New leader for Senate Democrats
Senate Democrats elected Sen. Jamie Pedersen, of Seattle, as Senate majority leader Monday. Sen. Andy Billig, D-Spokane, had served in that role for six years but is stepping down from the Legislature.
Pedersen has been floor leader since 2022, managing the flow of bills through the chamber. He’s been in the Senate since 2013 and was elected to the House in 2006.
“My days of being really involved in the details of a lot of policy are probably now behind me, so I’m going to have to entrust a lot of other folks with that and try to stay focused on the forest,” he said.
He said “quite a few” caucus members asked if he was willing to be the leader and believes that his time serving as the caucus’s campaign chair and floor leader “reassured them” he would be “calm, steady, organized, values-driven, responsive to their concerns.”
House Democrats will hold leadership elections Tuesday, House Republicans will hold them Nov. 23, and Senate Republicans will hold them in December.
A big budget gap
Voters rejected a GOP-backed slate of initiatives that could have thrown a wrench into the state budget if passed, but lawmakers are still expected to face a gap.
The deficit could be as large as $12 billion over the next four years. Last week, Pat Sullivan, the director of the state Office of Financial Management, pointed to a decline in expected revenue as well as an increase in the number of people the government serves through various programs and how much it costs to maintain existing services. Sullivan directed state agencies to propose budget cuts.
Pedersen said lawmakers may start to “explore” new revenue sources — such as a wealth tax.
“Given the makeup of the caucus, I think it is likely that those will be, broadly speaking, revenue options that push our tax system in a more progressive direction,” he said.
Last week, Washingtonians voted to keep the state’s tax on capital gains and keep requiring the payroll tax that funds public long-term care insurance. They also rejected an initiative to eliminate the state’s carbon market, which experts say has bumped up the price of gas.
Senate Republican Leader John Braun, of Centralia, said Democrats shouldn’t take the rejection of those initiatives as a sign that Washingtonians want more taxes.
“I would caution the other side against interpreting that as a go-ahead on more taxes because people are having trouble affording to live here in Washington state, and more taxes is not going to help that,” he said.
Republicans don’t have the votes to stop tax increases, which can pass with simple majorities, but Republican members can go out and talk about the effects of new taxes on Washington families, he said.
“There may be thoughtful Democrats that say, ‘Hey, I’m hearing from my constituents that they don’t think new revenue is the option, that the state needs to live within its means, just like they do,’ “ Braun said.
Ferguson in the governor’s mansion …
Gov. Jay Inslee is in his final weeks as Washington’s governor and will vacate the office after 12 years at the helm.
Governors have different styles in working with state legislatures, and the 2025 session will show how Gov.-elect Bob Ferguson approaches the relationship.
Ferguson, also a Democrat, announced his transition team Tuesday.
The roster includes his former rival for the governor’s office, outgoing Democratic Sen. Mark Mullet, and Republicans including state Rep. Paul Harris, who was narrowly ahead in a contest for his district’s state Senate seat, and Rep. Tom Dent. The group also includes tribal leaders and local elected officials, as well as union, nonprofit and business leaders.
Ferguson said the transition team “will focus on delivering practical, commonsense solutions to the challenges facing our state.”
Meantime, the state Republican Party announced a “Project to Resist Tyranny in Washington” under the Ferguson administration, concerning the governor’s approach to police, gun laws and “protections” for parents.
About 1.4 million Washingtonians voted for President-elect Donald Trump, according to vote totals as of Tuesday evening.
“Some elected officials get that,” Jim Walsh, chair of the state GOP, state in a statement Tuesday. “We all need to make sure those officials don’t act on their obsessive hatred of President Donald Trump and infringe or impair the constitutional rights of those Washingtonians.”
… and Trump in the White House
Washington seemed to get bluer this year while most states lurched to the right.
Ferguson and the state’s Attorney General-elect Nick Brown said last week they are gearing up to take on Trump if he oversteps. Ferguson, who is currently Washington’s attorney general, sued the Trump administration dozens of times during the former president’s first term.
In a news conference last week, House Speaker Laurie Jinkins, D-Tacoma, said she was focused on Washingtonians.
“I don’t think … we view our role any differently than we would’ve before yesterday,” she said Nov. 6, “which is to serve the people of the state of Washington, to meet their needs, to understand their needs, to listen to what’s happening to people in this state and then to craft solutions that will help address those needs.”
“It will remain to be seen whether or not we will have the federal government as a partner in this,” she said.
