Initiative 2066, the controversial natural gas measure, was the only ballot initiative approved by Washington voters this year. Now, some new data gives us insight into who voted for it and against it, and why.
Support for the measure was strongest among men, Republicans and Independents, survey data shows, and the primary reason voters supported it was financial.
Portland-based DHM Research conducted a post-election online survey of 504 Washington voters to help gauge voter perceptions and understand what drove election results. The survey was conducted from Nov. 6-10, and has a margin of error of +/- 4.4%.
Initiative 2066 protects access to natural gas and eases restrictions on adding natural gas heating in new construction. The Building Industry Association of Washington and the political action committee Let’s Go Washington sponsored the initiative. Environmental groups that advocate for less reliance on fossil fuels opposed the measure. Opponents are planning legal action in hopes of overturning it.
Progressives tend to call the shots in Washington statewide elections, but not with Initiative 2066. As of Tuesday, 51.6% of ballots statewide were in favor of the measure, even though heavily-populated King County overwhelmingly rejected it. The measure is also failing in four other Western Washington counties: Thurston, Whatcom, Jefferson and Clallam.
According to the survey data, among those who voted on the initiative, 51% approved it and 49% rejected it, fairly close to what election results have shown. Eighty-eight percent of those surveyed voted on the initiative, while 12% skipped over it when filling out their ballots.
As you would expect, the measure had more support from conservatives than liberals. Among voters who identify as Republican, 55% approved the initiative, 35% rejected it, and 10% didn’t vote on it. The numbers for Democrats were nearly the reverse: 54% rejected it, 34% approved, and 12% didn’t vote on it.
There are more Democrats than Republicans in Washington, of course. That is reflected in the survey sample, of which 44% identified as Democrats and 31% as Republicans. But support for I-2066 was also quite strong among Independents, who made up 22% of the survey sample.
Among Independents, 50% approved the measure, 34% said no, and 16% skipped it when filling out their ballot, according to the survey. With the combined support from Republicans and Independents, the measure was able to squeak by.
There was a clear gender divide in support for the initiative. The survey shows a majority of male voters — 54% — approved the measure, while 39% rejected it and 7% skipped voting on it. Among women, 36% approved the measure, 46% rejected, and 17% didn’t vote on it.
Interestingly, support for the initiative was lower among voters age 45-64, with just 34% approving it, than any other age group. The measure also had little support among voters in the lowest bracket for household income — those making less than $50,000 — with just 28% approval.
While the survey shows support was somewhat higher for the initiative in Eastern Washington than in Western Washington, surprisingly, the difference wasn’t statistically significant.
The No. 1 reason voters supported the measure was financial, specifically related to the cost burden on homeowners. Statewide, 44% of those who approved I-2066 said their primary reason was that it “stops the state from forcing homeowners to spend tens of thousands of dollars to convert their homes to all electric,” according to the survey.
But there was a geographic divide in reasons for supporting the initiative. Savings for homeowners was the choice for the majority of voters in the Puget Sound region who approved the measure. But in Eastern Washington, the top reason for approval was that the initiative “repeals regulations on the most restrictive building and energy codes in the nation.”
Among those who voted no on I-2066, the top reason, selected by 47%, was an environmental one: “It will roll back existing laws that keep our utilities on the path to clean energy.”
