Despite the talk of a high-stakes presidential election with democracy itself allegedly on the line — not to mention a gubernatorial race and four major initiative campaigns — voter turnout in Washington is on track to be the lowest in more than two decades.
Fewer than 78 percent of the state’s 5 million registered voters cast ballots in the Nov. 5 election, the lowest turnout since 2000, when just 75.5 percent participated.
That’s well below the 2020 mark of 84 percent, and a little under 2016’s turnout of about 79 percent, according to an analysis of vote totals as of Tuesday and those reported by counties as remaining to be tallied.
Stuart Holmes, director of elections for the Secretary of State’s office, said he doesn’t expect those numbers to shift much in the coming days as ballot counting winds down.
While it will take time to sort out exactly why turnout is down compared with recent presidential elections, Holmes said one factor was that many younger voters didn’t show up.
“Certainly, the age range of 18 to 34 did not turn out at historic numbers. That’s really going to be what drives that turnout figure,” Holmes said. “You can almost set your watch at those who are 50 and older turning out.”
Fewer than half of voters under age 30 voted this year, according to data shared by Holmes. That rate rose the older the age group. For voters 50 to 54, turnout was over 64 percent. For those 60 to 64, it was over 72 percent, for example. For voters 80 to 84, the turnout rate exceeded 88 percent.
Lower turnout among younger voters is not a new phenomenon as older voters have traditionally voted at higher rates.
Cinthia Illan-Vazquez, executive director for The Washington Bus, a liberal-leaning nonprofit organization seeking to engage young voters, said in an email that low youth voter turnout “reflects systemic issues in political engagement rather than apathy.”
Younger voters are “highly engaged” on specific issues, Illan-Vazquez said, pointing to a campus outreach effort that doubled youth turnout in Spokane compared with the state average. She said younger voters also were key in defeating Initiative 2117, the measure seeking to repeal the state’s landmark climate cap-and-trade law.
But the group’s research indicates “that traditional political institutions and candidates have not adequately addressed the priorities of young, diverse, and working-class communities,” Illan-Vazquez said.
Shasti Conrad, the state Democratic Party chair, said she doesn’t see the overall turnout drop-off as a huge problem.
“In some ways we’re victims of our own success,” Conrad said, noting that the state surpassed 5 million registered voters ahead of the election, compared with about 4.9 million four years ago.
Democrats won every statewide race and maintained or expanded their majorities in the Legislature. But they were losing targeted races in the 14th Legislative District, the Yakima Valley area where they’d hoped to flip some GOP seats following a court ruling that redrew political boundaries to give Latino voters more electoral clout.
“It’s a new electorate for us, so there’s just more work that has to be done,” Conrad said.
Meanwhile, Washington Republicans were licking their wounds after losing most big races, despite a bet that initiatives aimed at rolling back Democrat-backed tax and climate policies might drive turnout for GOP candidates.
Mathew Patrick Thomas, the King County GOP chair, said Republicans are feeling increasingly outnumbered. But he said he thinks the lower turnout shows Democrats, even in Washington, were not as thrilled about their top of the ticket after the wild year in which President Joe Biden dropped out late and made way for Vice President Kamala Harris and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz.
“That duo was not anything to jump up and down about,” Thomas said.
Nationally, lower turnout in liberal strongholds across the country compared with four years ago contributed to Donald Trump’s victory over Kamala Harris, The New York Times reported this week.
Counties with the biggest Democratic margins in 2020 delivered 1.9 million fewer votes this year for Harris than they had for Biden while the most Republican-heavy counties turned out an additional 1.2 million for Trump, the newspaper reported.
In King County, Washington’s biggest Democratic stronghold, turnout so far was around 80 percent, coming in a bit lower than King County Elections’ prediction of 82 percent — and well below the record of 86.5 percent in 2020.
Halei Watkins, a spokesperson for the elections office, said there were clues in lower turnout compared with four years ago in the March presidential primary and August state primary, “which told us that we would be likely to come in below the record-breaking turnout reached in the 2020 General.”
In Snohomish County, as of Tuesday, turnout was around 78 percent, based on the votes counted and those estimated on hand remaining to be tallied. In Pierce County, turnout was around 76 percent.
Sparsely populated Garfield County in Southeast Washington had the highest turnout rate, at about 83 percent.
Washington has gone to great lengths to make it easy to vote. Every registered voter is sent a ballot, which can be mailed in postage free or deposited by Election Day in a secure drop box.
County canvassing boards must certify the election results by Nov. 26. The secretary of state will complete final certification by Dec. 5.
