Leubsdorf: Trump’s grand plans

• Immigration. Trump plans to “close” the U.S.-Mexico border on Inauguration Day and order the deportation of millions of immigrants who are in the United States illegally, enlisting federal and local law enforcement agencies and perhaps the U.S. military to carry out his directives. It would almost certainly be messy and, along with the criminals he has vowed to target, could sweep up many law-abiding long-time U.S. residents, including necessary farm and construction workers.
• Tariffs. Trump says he will impose tariffs on all U.S. imports of 10 percent to 20 percent, which many economists predict will raise prices substantially, threaten a new burst of inflation and perhaps cause a recession. Independent analysts forecast it could pass up to $4,000 in costs to the average American household.
• Energy. Trump said he plans to order a massive increase in oil and gas production, starting on Inauguration Day, including opening more federal lands to drilling. He plans to curb government programs to encourage the move away from fossil fuels and build more electric vehicles.
• Taxes. Trump plans to urge the new Congress to make permanent his 2017 tax cuts, which expire at the end of 2025. During the campaign, he proposed an array of additional tax cuts, which may face congressional resistance because of their cost, including more corporate cuts and exempting from taxes all Social Security income, car loan interest, income from tips, and the income of military members, veterans and law enforcement personnel.
• Retribution. Trump said he will fire special counsel Jack Smith and will almost certainly order the Justice Department to withdraw the federal charges against him for trying to overturn the 2020 election. He vowed to end the Justice Department’s independence and make it much more obedient to the White House. His choice for attorney general will be closely watched.
• Health care. Trump, who failed in his first term to repeal the Affordable Care Act, has been vague on his plans this time around, beyond declaring he has “concepts of a plan” to revise the 14-year-old health care law.
• Revamping the government. Trump promised to name billionaire car manufacturer Elon Musk, one of his high-profile supporters, to head a government commission to sharply cut federal spending. Musk promised to find $2 trillion in savings, which could mean sharp cuts in domestic programs for education, health and housing, defense spending, and the Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid programs.
• Ukraine. Trump said he would settle, even before his inauguration, the 3-year-old war that began when Russia invaded its pro-West neighbor. Vice President-elect JD Vance has opposed U.S. support for the embattled nation, declaring, “I really don’t care what happens to Ukraine.”
• NATO. Trump’s election raises warning flags for the future of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, the 75-year-old treaty that has tied the United States to the defense of European democracies. He threatened to disregard the provision that requires member nations to support any fellow member that is attacked.

Much of what Trump is promising can be done by executive order, but many acts will be challenged in court and his tax and spending proposals will require congressional approval. Even with a Republican Congress, some of this could prove difficult — and the potential fallout is uncertain at best.

In any case, get set for a rough ride. It might make Trump’s first term look like a walk in the park.