Hundreds of thousands of ballots remain to be counted in Washington state’s general election, but with just over 2.6 million votes tallied on Tuesday, some early pictures emerged.
Washington’s mail ballots can produce some major shifts in later counts, but here are five early takeaways.
- A slate of initiatives goes down
A slate of voter initiatives had been pitched as an end run around the heavily Democratic Legislature, which has lately passed ambitious liberal policies as the party’s majorities have grown.
But voters sharply rejected three initiatives, voting to keep Washington’s carbon market, its capital gains tax and its public long-term care insurance program intact.
That suggests the ballot box may not be a viable route to overturn such policies, especially as liberal groups have massive fundraising power on issues like the climate.
Still, a few facts make the picture more complicated.
First, voters were narrowly supporting a fourth measure to roll back certain regulations on natural gas.
And earlier this year, lawmakers made a major concession to the initiatives’ backer, Redmond hedge fund manager Brian Heywood. They passed three other initiatives he supported, rolling back regulations on police pursuits, ensuring no state income tax and creating a “parents’ bill of rights.” They sent the three initiatives that voters ended up rejecting to voters.
Not only that, but the ballot title language may have been confusing to some voters, and so was the basic setup: the notion of voting in favor of an initiative to overturn a policy, versus voting against an initiative in order to keep a policy, may have sown confusion.
Tuesday’s results, though, also mean that Washington’s Legislature will likely avoid a major budget shortfall in the upcoming legislative session.
- 2 new members of Congress. Or maybe 4?
Washington will have at least two, and potentially as many as four new members of Congress.
On the Olympic Peninsula, Democrat Emily Randall appeared on track to replace the retiring Rep. Derek Kilmer in the 6th Congressional District. And in Eastern Washington, Republican Michael Baumgartner looked very likely to succeed retiring Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers in the 5th District.
The uncertainty comes in Southwest Washington’s 3rd District, and Eastern Washington’s 4th District, where incumbents held narrow leads on election night.
In the 3rd, one of the most hotly contested races anywhere in the country, Democratic incumbent Marie Gluesenkamp Perez led Republican Joe Kent by about 12,000 votes, or 4 percentage points. It’s a rematch of the 2022 race, in which Gluesenkamp Perez also held a narrow election night lead, but saw Kent close the gap, although ultimately not enough.
The 4th District will be represented by a Republican, the question is which one. Incumbent Dan Newhouse holds a 4,000 vote lead, or 2 percentage points, over challenger Jerrod Sessler. Newhouse is one of only two remaining House Republicans who voted to impeach Donald Trump after Jan. 6, 2021, and Sessler’s campaign has been fueled by Trump’s endorsement.
Even as much of the country saw significant shifts toward Republicans from the 2020 elections, Democrats appeared on track to continue their stranglehold on Washington.
Democrats led on election night in every race for statewide office, from marquee races like governor and senator to low-profile ones like treasurer and insurance commissioner.
And as many other Democratic areas, like New York and New Jersey, saw rightward shifts, initial results in Washington don’t show that at all.
Democrats won the governor’s race in 2020 with 56% of the vote; Bob Ferguson won this year’s governor’s race with 56% of Tuesday’s vote.
Joe Biden won 58% of Washington’s vote in 2020; Kamala Harris currently has 58% of the vote this year.
Democrats won the 2020 attorney general’s race with 56% of the vote; Nick Brown currently holds 56% of the vote in the attorney general’s race this year.
- Record Republican gubernatorial losing streak continues
Bob Ferguson’s win in the governor’s race continued a record run for Democrats, and a longest-in-the-nation losing streak for Republicans.
The last time Washington voters sent a Republican — John Spellman — to the governor’s mansion, was in 1980, when Blondie and Pink Floyd topped the pop charts and Ronald Reagan won the White House.
Since then, Republicans have lost during red wave years and in blue waves and in good economies and bad. The one-party dominance in some past decades was softened by split control of the state Legislature, and the GOP also used to be competitive in other statewide offices. That’s no longer the case, as Democrats control the Legislature and all statewide positions.
The problem for Washington Republicans is that losing breeds more losing, and with a dearth of big-name elected officials, it’s not even clear who is left on the Republican bench.
Dave Reichert, the former sheriff and congressman, had been viewed as a top potential recruit for years, but he lost handily on Tuesday. His numbers were particularly abysmal in King County, where the rule of thumb has been that a GOP statewide candidate needs to get around 40% of the vote. As of Tuesday, Reichert was under 28%.
- A good night for Seattle progressives, too
A strong lead for City Council challenger Alexis Mercedes Rinck and a clear victory for state House candidate Shaun Scott handed Seattle progressives a promising night Tuesday in a pair of key matchups with more conservative opponents.
Victories for Mercedes Rinck and Scott could represent a bit of a bounce back for left-wing Democrats in Washington’s largest city, coming a year after losses in a number of council races ushered in a new, law-and-order majority at City Hall.
Mercedes Rinck, a policy wonk backed by Democratic Party groups and unions in her bid for incumbent Tanya Woo’s citywide seat, held 57% of the vote Tuesday night. Woo, a business-oriented Chinatown International District advocate, was appointed to the seat in January to fill a vacancy and was endorsed by all but one of her council colleagues.
Scott, a progressive activist and former state field director for Bernie Sanders’ presidential campaign in 2020, tangled over issues like public safety with Andrea Suarez, founder of the controversial homeless services group We Heart Seattle.
After taking 68% of the vote Tuesday in a district that includes the University of Washington, Capitol Hill and Belltown, Scott will occupy a 43rd Legislative District seat vacated by longtime power broker Frank Chopp and try to push the House Dems left.
