Leubsdorf: On Tuesday, we face 2 unappetizing scenarios

Since 2021, that control has been exercised by a conservative Democrat, West Virginia’s Joe Manchin, and a maverick Democrat-turned-independent, Arizona’s Kyrsten Sinema. Without them, Democratic Majority Leader Chuck Schumer often had only 49 of the 100 votes; with them, he had a bare majority that passed President Joe Biden’s key initiatives and confirmed most of his nominees.

Both chose not to seek reelection. In fact, the likelihood that Republicans will win Manchin’s seat is one reason they are virtually certain to regain the majority. The other is the prospect that, in ruby red Montana, they will finally unseat three-term Democrat Jon Tester.

Pending other close races, that would give them at least 51 seats, as all GOP incumbents seem headed for reelection.

But two of those 51 will be moderate Republicans, Maine Sen. Susan Collins and Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski. They refused to endorse Trump and would likely become keys to getting a majority on many votes, especially with a Democrat in the White House.

That’s because most Republicans will throw up a red wall against a President Harris on many judicial and executive branch confirmations, starting with votes to confirm her Cabinet. She would need at least two GOP votes to get most nominees confirmed.

Indeed, Harris would have to clear her top nominees with the Republican majority, especially Collins and Murkowski. That means her success could depend on her ability to negotiate with the GOP-controlled Senate, an area where she lacks Biden’s experience and relationships.

In the House, a new Democratic majority would probably stick together better than the small Republican majority did the past two years. Still, New York Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, the likely speaker of a Democratic House, could encounter difficulty because he lacks the experience of his predecessor, Nancy Pelosi.

Beyond that, the biggest benefit of a Harris victory would be the rejection — hopefully finally — of Trump. And the country would be far better off with even a constrained Harris presidency than the likeliest alternative: an unrestrained Trump presidency.

That’s exactly what might happen under Scenario No. 2: Two years of Trump having much of the legislative power he savors, along with his robust view of executive power. The leader of House Republicans, Speaker Mike Johnson, is a total Trump loyalist, and there are few GOP moderates left who would resist.

The Senate is more problematic — but only on legislation, not nominations. Because most bills require 60 votes, the Democratic minority would be able to block legislation it opposes. And a GOP majority would have new, untested leadership.

Some Republicans want to use a reconciliation measure to revamp the Affordable Care Act, or even replace it. And on the spending side, they hope to include the deeper domestic cuts on which the House GOP has long been stymied by Democrats in the Senate and White House.

The size of a Republican majority could determine that. A 51-49 tally would give Collins and Murkowski some leverage to moderate any sweeping proposals from their more conservative GOP colleagues.

A Republican Congress — like a Trump administration — might also spend considerable time investigating the prior Democratic administration.

But a GOP sweep next week would almost certainly give Trump free rein on Capitol Hill, at least until the 2026 midterms. That prospect is the Democrats’ — and the country’s — worst nightmare.