Leubsdorf: First debate does little for predictions

The Trump camp believes the former president’s incessant recent debate challenges forced Biden into accepting not just one but two debates when he would just as soon have avoided them altogether.

But beyond the bluster and the claims, there were always going to be presidential debates. There have been at least two in every election since 1976, when challenger Jimmy Carter and President Gerald Ford ended a 16-year hiatus in an election so close both believed they’d benefit.

Sound familiar?

Recent polling shows Biden has all but erased Trump’s initial small national lead but still faces a challenge in securing enough of the battleground states to gain the required 270 electoral votes.

Meanwhile, the results of recent presidential primaries, in which Biden and Trump ran essentially unopposed for the nominations they had already clinched, showed neither has solidified his base to the extent needed to win.

Biden’s campaign feels that, as in 2020, Trump is underestimating Biden’s experience and will lower expectations for the president by repeatedly labeling him as an inept debater and weak leader.

In fact, at key moments over the past four years, Biden has tended to rise to the occasion and exceed expectations. They include his 2020 convention acceptance speech, the 2020 general election debate performances, and his past two State of the Union addresses.

Both candidates may be rusty; neither has participated in a debate since their two 2020 encounters because both avoided their primary foes. Trump prefers rallies where he can rail unchallenged against his favorite targets to the guaranteed acclamation of his fans. Biden prefers set piece speeches in which he can define the terms of the debate.

It’s important to remember that initial post-debate signs of success, like instant polls, are questionable indicators of who’ll win the election. John F. Kennedy’s strong showing in the initial 1960 debate fueled his narrow victory, but, since then, candidate gaffes have often had a greater impact.

In 1976, Ford’s inexplicable statement that Communist-controlled Poland was free clearly contributed to his defeat. So did Democrat Mike Dukakis’ weak 1988 answer to a question about the death penalty, the moment during a 1992 town hall debate when former President George Bush was shown looking at his watch and former Vice President Al Gore’s exaggerated reactions in his first 2000 encounter with George W. Bush.

On the other hand, former President Ronald Reagan recovered in a second 1984 debate from a meandering first debate that raised questions about his age, and former President Barack Obama rebounded from a weak debate 2012 performance that reflected his overconfidence.

The moments that dominate the post-debate discussion will influence the next days and weeks. But there will still be four months until the election, including the two conventions and at least one more debate. So, what happens June 27 may be the beginning of the end — but not the end.