The following is presented as part of The Columbian’s Opinion content, which offers a point of view in order to provoke thought and debate of civic issues. Opinions represent the viewpoint of the author. Unsigned editorials represent the consensus opinion of The Columbian’s editorial board, which operates independently of the news department.
Leubsdorf: Expect another closely divided Congress
By Carl Leubsdorf
Published: June 29, 2024, 6:01am
Share:
After two years of bitter congressional conflict, both parties are spending hundreds of millions of dollars in hopes of gaining working majorities in next year’s session. But it’s a long shot — for both. More probably, 2025 will again see divisions in both houses so slender that the party winning the presidency will again find action difficult.
The Republicans have a slightly better chance of being able to act. If Donald Trump wins and they narrowly control both House and Senate, they could enact their pledges of more tax cuts and sweeping domestic spending reductions by using the controversial reconciliation process requiring only simple majorities in both houses.
Meanwhile, a reelected Joe Biden may have even less leeway since his best hope would likely be a narrow House margin and a 50-50 Senate. It would take the loss of only one Senate incumbent for Republicans to gain a majority and the votes to block Biden Cabinet and judicial nominees.
At present, House Republicans believe — and some independent analysts agree — they could well retain their current razor-thin margin. But their mismanagement has given Democrats hope of regaining the majority by taking most of the 16 seats in districts that voted in 2020 for Biden, nine of them in California and New York.
In the Senate, meanwhile, Republicans believe Trump’s strength in several key states could help them regain the majority they held from 2015-2021. But if they do, it will be by a narrow margin, well short of the 60 votes needed for most legislation.
As in several recent elections, GOP chances are threatened by the choice of flawed candidates in several key races. They include three where the Democrats raised questions about the true residences of GOP hopefuls.
The GOP starts with a Senate battleground advantage since 23 of the 34 seats being contested are held by Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents.
In addition, in increasingly red West Virginia, Democrat-turned-Republican Gov. Jim Justice is heavily favored to win the seat opened by conservative Democrat Joe Manchin’s retirement.
That means the Democrats can’t afford to lose another seat because they seem unlikely to win any of the 11 seats now held by Republicans. The GOP thinks it has a good chance against four Democratic incumbents — Jon Tester of Montana, Jacky Rosen of Nevada, Bob Casey of Pennsylvania and Sherrod Brown of Ohio.
Recent House races have increasingly reflected presidential preferences, which could mean problems for the Democrats. On the other hand, both Bill Clinton and Barack Obama won reelection without winning the House.
Republicans now hold 221 of its 435 seats, including vacancies in two GOP districts, meaning the Democrats would have to gain four seats to win control. The Cook Political Report says that, on a district-by-district basis, “Republicans have a slight edge overall, but it’s not much of one.” House races tend to develop much closer to Election Day.
The principal battlegrounds are the 45 open seats, 23 of which are currently held by Democrats. Beyond that, each party has a target list but there is general agreement on the most vulnerable members.
Besides the five California and four New York seats, Democratic targets are Republican members in Arizona, Nebraska, New Jersey, Oregon, Pennsylvania and Virginia districts carried by Biden in 2020. Similarly, top GOP targets are Maine, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Washington and Alaska Democrats whose districts backed Trump in 2020.
However these races turn out, the likelihood is that the next president will again have to govern with the narrowest of congressional margins, ensuring two more years of partisan squabbling.
Morning Briefing Newsletter
Get a rundown of the latest local and regional news every Mon-Fri morning.
