After observing a series of coronal mass ejections, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Space Weather Prediction Center expects auroras to be visible from much of the northern U.S. this week.
But will they reach Washington? And even if they do, will the clouds clear up in time to see them? Here’s what we know so far.
- Will the northern lights be visible from Washington?
According to NOAA’s experimental aurora dashboard, Tuesday night is expected to see a G3-level, or strong, geomagnetic storm. NOAA’s prediction says that the aurora view line will stretch into southern Washington, with most of the state having a chance to see the northern lights on the horizon, albeit a relatively low one.
Wednesday, a G2-level, or moderate, storm is expected, but NOAA’s dashboard says that the resulting aurora is expected to have a Kp index of 6. If it reaches that level, auroras could be visible from nearly all of Washington and even some parts of Oregon. The northern parts of Washington have a moderate likelihood of seeing the northern lights, while the chances fall the further south you go.
Much of Washington has been hit by cloudy skies so far this week. Rainy weather in western Washington hampered any chance of seeing the lights on Monday. Similarly, Tuesday night is expected to be cloudy in the western half of the state. But luckily, that’s expected to change just in time.
According to the University of Washington Department of Atmospheric Sciences’ forecast, Wednesday morning will be cloudy in western Washington, before clearing up by night. Eastern Washington will mostly see clear skies all day.
The National Weather Service in Seattle also forecasts clear skies across Puget Sound on Wednesday night, including in Bellingham, Tacoma and Olympia. The Weather Service in Pendleton, Oregon, which overseas southeast Washington, also forecasts clear skies for the Tri-Cities region throughout Wednesday.
- Will they be as strong as the lights we saw earlier this year?
If you are able to catch the northern lights this week, they aren’t expected to be as bright as the auroras we saw in May. Those were caused by solar flares that triggered a G5-level geomagnetic storm, the strongest in decades. This week’s solar flares are expected to set off a storm in the G2 to G3 range.
But this week’s aurora is also being described as a “cannibal” solar storm, which could result in it being stronger than expected. A cannibal solar storm is when mass ejections are released from the sun at different speeds, according to NASA, potentially resulting in them combining and hitting Earth all at once.
