Six Republicans and five Democrats are running to represent Eastern Washington in Congress in one of the year’s most crowded races in Washington, with only the open seat for governor attracting more candidates.
In less than a month, only two of them will be left to compete in the November election.
Most running for the seat come from political backgrounds. Some with little or no political experience have joined the race hoping to offer a radically different perspective.
The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election-analysis outfit, rates the 5th Congressional District “R+8,” meaning that in the 2016 and 2020 elections combined, the district performed eight percentage points more Republican than the nation as a whole. In 2022, outgoing incumbent Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers bested Democratic rival Natasha Hill by nearly 20 points.
Recent precedent in this district is complicated, however, by the seat being open for the first time in 20 years. McMorris Rodgers has held it since 2005, when she defeated Spokane progressive Don Barbieri by 20 points. Her surprise announcement in February that she would not seek re-election may provide the best chance in a generation for Democrats to flip the seat.
Still, the Cook Political Report does not rank the district as competitive, suggesting that a Republican is likely to retake the seat in November. Republicans have held the seat and fended off Democrats, usually easily, since 1995.
The November election could become more competitive if two Republicans receive more votes than their competitors, due to Washington’s top-two primary system.
As voters begin to receive their ballots this week for the Aug. 6 primary, some candidates have clear advantages headed into the home stretch. Spokane County Treasurer Michael Baumgartner, who gained prominence in 2010 when he defeated incumbent Democratic state Sen. Chris Marr in what was then the most expensive race in state history, has a profound fundraising lead over the rest of the field.
Some other campaigns appear unable to raise the cash needed to go all the way, with Kootenai County Deputy Prosecutor Matthew Welde, WSU lecturer Bobbi Bennett-Wolcott, author Rick Valentine Flynn, radio show host Rene Holaday and Spokane City Councilman Jonathan Bingle all raising relatively little cash since they announced their candidacies, especially in the last three months. Flynn and Holaday have not reported raising anything to the Federal Election Commission.
Baumgartner, who previously served as a prominent state senator during a brief moment when Republicans controlled that chamber, has a dominant fundraising haul to help him boost his profile and the backing of many notable former Republican politicians.
He heads to the August primary having been given more money than most other candidates combined, and he’s received the endorsements of some prominent Republicans, such as former state Sen. Dino Rossi; Spokane-area conservatives, such as former mayors Nadine Woodward and David Condon; and influential voices such as hedge fund manager Brian Heywood.
Baumgartner has taken a more moderate stance on many issues than some of his Republican competitors. He is the only one to pledge to not vote for a federal abortion ban, arguing that it should be left to the states.
State Rep. Jacquelin Maycumber, R-Republic, who serves as the Republican House Floor Leader, has largely consolidated the support of legislators in the northern end of the congressional district.
