President Joe Biden’s response to Israel’s war in Gaza has not influenced many voters to change which presidential candidate they plan on supporting, a Washington poll shows.
Among 708 likely voters, only 8% said Biden’s response to the conflict in Gaza changes who they support for president. Responses showed a generational gap, with almost one-quarter of people aged 18-34 saying Biden’s response changed who they support, about 20 percentage points higher than any other age group.
About half of survey respondents said their voting plans had not been affected by Biden’s policies concerning Gaza. Another 24% said Biden’s response does not change who they plan to vote for, but makes them more supportive of their respective candidate and 13% said Biden’s response does not change who they plan to vote for but makes them less supportive of their candidate.
A tiny sliver, 4%, said Biden’s response to the war made them less likely to vote at all.
The WA Poll is sponsored by The Seattle Times, KING 5 and the University of Washington’s Center for an Informed Public.
“The issue with Gaza is that it affects very few Americans directly, affects very few Washingtonians: Israeli Americans, or Americans of Jewish descent, or Palestinian Americans, or Arab Americans, but those are a very small slice of the overall voting population, particularly in Washington,” said James Long, a political-science professor at UW.
Younger people were far more likely to say Biden’s response to the war influenced their voting decision. 23% of respondents under 35 said the issue has changed who they support. Another 23% of respondents in that age group said it hadn’t changed who they support but made them more supportive of them, and another 23% said it wouldn’t change who they support but made them less supportive. The majority of respondents in every other age bracket agreed it did not affect their voting plans. Just 3% of respondents over the age of 50 said Biden’s response changed who they plan on voting for.
Among Biden supporters, 22% said his response hasn’t changed who they support but made them more supportive and 4% changed who they support to vote for him as a result of his response to the conflict. 54% of Biden supporters said their voting plans hadn’t changed at all.
Republicans, Democrats and Independents were about equally likely to say Biden’s response changed who they support, with 7-8% in each group saying that was the case.
Among liberals, people who identified as very liberal were more likely to be critical of Biden’s response, with over one-third of respondents who identified as very liberal being less supportive (but not changing who they planned to vote for) or changing their vote.
A Pew Research Center study found American’s views about the war differ widely by age, and younger Americans are more likely to say Biden is favoring Israel too much and sympathize more with Palestinian people. When asked if encampments in support of a cease fire on college campuses across the country this spring influenced his approach to the conflict, Biden said no.
Biden’s support among Arab American voters plummeted this year amid his support for Israel’s war in Gaza in which over 37,000 Palestinians have been killed. A CNN poll conducted in April found his handling of the war was his worst issue approval rating, with 71% of respondents disapproving.
However, the issue is not a top priority ahead of the election even among the younger voting block, and there is little evidence that the administration’s support for Israel is the driving force behind Americans’ voting decisions nationally — including among young people.
Historically, presidential elections tend to be focused on domestic issues like the economy. Among survey respondents, one-quarter said their top issue was cost of living — which corresponds with much national polling. The second-highest ranked issue was protecting democracy, followed by abortion and border security.
Dean McKinley, a 64-year-old Graham, Pierce County, resident who plans on voting for former President Donald Trump, said the Israeli government responded to a threat similarly as the United States would, though he said he sometimes thinks Israel “goes too far.”
But McKinley said the war in Gaza isn’t his top issue, and Biden’s response hasn’t influenced his voting decision at all. He’s more focused on the economy and impacts of Democratic policies in Washington.
“There’s a few things I disagree with, but overall, when [Trump] was president, I had more money in my pocket.”
The poll was conducted by SurveyUSA between July 10 and 13, after the first presidential debate and before the attempted assassination of Trump at a rally in Butler, Penn. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.
More poll results will be released in the coming days on subjects including the initiatives on Washington’s November ballot, top issues for Washington’s next governor and the state of democracy.
