OLYMPIA — A new statewide poll shows Democrat Bob Ferguson 9 percentage points ahead of his main rival, Republican Dave Reichert, in the battle for the governor’s mansion.
The two are far ahead in a crowded field and will likely face off in November’s general election, the WA Poll shows.
Among 564 surveyed voters likely to cast a ballot in the Aug. 6 primary, 42% said that if the primary were today they would vote for Ferguson, and 33% said they’d vote for Reichert.
The next largest group of voters, about 14%, said they were undecided.
Republican Semi Bird followed with 7%, and Democrat Mark Mullet, a state senator, fell in last place, with 4% of voters saying they’d back him in August. Only three poll respondents said they would vote for another candidate, but they did not name any of the other 24 candidates who will appear on the primary ballot.
It’s not clear which direction undecided voters will go. But if voters stick with their party’s candidate in November and Bird’s voters flock to Reichert and Mullet’s voters to Ferguson, the gap between the front-runners would narrow to 6 percentage points.
If that holds true, the general election could be closer than it may look at first glance from the numbers, given the poll’s credibility interval of plus or minus 5.2 percentage points.
Last month, the Cook Political Report changed its rating of Washington’s governor’s race from a likely Democrat race to lean Democrat, pointing to Reichert’s record in the public eye as a former congressman and King County sheriff.
The race has been heated, with Ferguson, the state’s longtime attorney general, campaigning heavily against Reichert, styling him as too conservative for the state on issues including abortion and the Affordable Care Act and pointing to his record of voting in alignment with former President Donald Trump.
Reichert, in turn, has criticized Ferguson on crime and public safety.
When asked for a reaction to the poll, Ferguson in a statement hit Reichert again on the abortion issue. Reichert did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The WA poll reveals a stark partisan divide, with 72% of Democrats saying they would vote for Ferguson while 76% of Republicans said they’d back Reichert. The two had roughly even support among independents, with 32% saying they’d back Reichert and 33% behind Ferguson.
According to SurveyUSA, which conducted the poll, Bird saw “outsized support among very conservative voters,” with 16% of those voters choosing him. Mullet, who has campaigned as a moderate, saw the most support from “very liberal” voters along the political spectrum, picking up 11% of that group.
Ferguson appeared to be ahead of Reichert in all age groups. The attorney general was also more popular among women, at 50% of respondents compared with Reichert’s 28%, while Reichert was narrowly more popular among men, getting support from 37% of men compared with Ferguson’s 35%.
Ferguson and Reichert were just a few percentage points apart on support from white and Hispanic voters, with Ferguson slightly ahead in each group.
But he was significantly more popular among Asian voters, with 61% of Asian voters supporting Ferguson and 16% supporting Reichert. Too few respondents who were Black or other races were interviewed for that data to be meaningful, according to SurveyUSA.
The race for Washington governor is open for the first time in 12 years, since Democrat Jay Inslee announced he wouldn’t seek a fourth term. Democrats had thin margins of victory in 2004 and 2012, the most recent years when there was an open governor’s seat.
The WA Poll is sponsored by The Seattle Times, KING 5 and the University of Washington’s Center for an Informed Public. The questions about the gubernatorial race included responses from 564 likely primary voters contacted by SurveyUSA between July 10 and 13, and have a credibility interval of plus or minus 5.2 percentage points.
More poll results will be released in the coming days on subjects including the initiatives on Washington’s November ballot, abortion, other top issues for voters and the presidential election.
