As if Democrats don’t have enough to keep them up nights, here’s something beyond frightful visions of a Trump victory: a Republican trifecta in Washington.
Joe Biden’s calamitous debate performance and the burgeoning concerns about his age and acuity aren’t just undercutting his chances at a second term. They’re also threatening to thwart Democratic efforts to hold on to the Senate and flip control of the House. That helps explain the party’s Great Freak-Out and why so many Democratic lawmakers desperately wish Biden would stand aside and abandon his reelection effort.
“What’s going on right now in no way, shape or form is going to help those running for reelection,” said Jim Manley, who spent decades in the Senate as a top leadership aide.
Nonpartisan election handicappers agree. The existential angst surrounding Biden and his durability, both physical and political, isn’t helping his party or its candidates, they say.
“The question is: How big of a hole is Biden digging for them at the top of the ticket that they need to climb out of in their own races?” said Nathan Gonzales, editor and publisher of Inside Elections.
Herewith, some obligatory caveats: It’s still a long way to November; there is no certainty that replacing Biden as the Democratic nominee won’t make things worse; Donald Trump could do something so awful and odious that voters will recoil en masse, sending him and fellow Republicans to an epic thrashing in November.
It’s not just the White House
For now at least, Democrats suddenly face a much steeper climb to prevent a complete GOP takeover of Washington, which includes a submissive, Trump-friendly Supreme Court.
It was always going to be tough for Democrats to keep control of the Senate. They hold a reed-thin 51-49 advantage, counting three independents who caucus with them. They have to defend more than twice as many seats as Republicans — 23 to 11 — and several of those are in states that Trump won handily in 2020.
Surveys have consistently shown Democrats across the country outpolling the president — which shows how specific Biden’s problems are to the aged incumbent. But when does Biden become too big of a drag for Democratic candidates to overcome?
The fight for the House looks to be much closer.
Democrats need a gain of just four seats to win control. The Cook Report ranks 44 seats as competitive — 24 of them held by Democrats and 20 by Republicans.
The problem for Democrats is a distinct mood shift after Biden’s dreadful performance in Atlanta. “I think the debate has created a base problem,” said David Wasserman of Cook Report. By that he means the prospect of fatalistic Democratic-leaning voters sitting out this November, sinking the party’s candidates.
All of that gloom and doom aside, there is the merest silver lining for beleaguered Democrats, regardless of whether Biden remains atop their ticket.
If defeat in November seems certain, independent voters may swing toward Democrats to keep Republicans from gaining control of the House and Senate and allowing a revivified Trump to run roughshod.
But that’s looking on the bright side for Democrats. If that’s their best hope, the party is in real trouble.
Mark Z. Barabak is a columnist for the Los Angeles Times.
