The most likely scenario, should Biden become convinced he has to step down, would be for the forthcoming Democratic Convention to elevate Vice President Kamala Harris to the top spot and pair her with a prominent office holder, despite doubts about her electability.
Meanwhile, many Democrats took solace in the widespread panning of Trump’s performance, which was replete with his usual lies and exaggerations.
“It was a weak debate performance by President Biden,” Delaware Sen. Chris Coons conceded. But “Donald Trump had a horrifying debate performance. . . . Yes, he spoke plainly. But what he said was lie after lie after lie.”
Some Biden allies noted that Presidents Ronald Reagan and Barack Obama both recovered from poor first debate performances to win reelection. But neither Reagan’s wandering closing statement nor Obama’s lackluster responses came close to Biden’s stumbling, hoarse-voiced, sometimes incoherent performance.
And none of the potential post-debate recalibrations have changed the widespread public view that, at 81, Biden is too old to serve four more years in the White House, despite the successes of his first term.
“He had one thing he had to accomplish, and that was to reassure America that he was up to the job at his age,” former Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill said. “And he failed at that.”
A post-debate CBS News/YouGov poll showed that nearly three-fourths of the registered voters sampled believed Biden lacked the necessary mental and cognitive ability to serve as president, an increase of seven points since before the debate. By contrast, half said Trump lacked the necessary mental and cognitive ability.
It’s unlikely that Democratic hand-wringing — and calls for his withdrawal from liberal columnists, The New York Times, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution and the Chicago Tribune — will convince Biden or his inner circle that he should withdraw.
For that to happen, those closest to him — his wife Jill, his sister Valerie Biden Owens and longtime aide Ted Kaufman — would have to conclude his race is unwinnable.
Any effort to replace him would depend both on party leaders and the 3,949 Democratic delegates. But they were elected to support both Biden and Harris; if he withdrew, Harris would become his likeliest successor, lest the party risk angering its large minority base by spurning the first African American and Asian American to hold national office.
The closest political parallel to Biden’s plight may be former President Harry Truman’s 1948 re-election campaign. He was so unpopular that prominent Democrats talked of replacing him right up until the convention. Like Biden, he was facing the Republican who had lost four years earlier and was beset by a proliferation of independent candidacies.
But Truman galvanized the party with a stirring convention speech and an energetic campaign. Biden will have some opportunities — notably his convention speech in August and a debate scheduled for Sept. 10.
“That was strike one,” Rep. Jim Clyburn, D-S.C., said after the debate. “If this were a ballgame, he’s got two more swings.”
Unless he decides it’s time for a pinch-hitter.
