In the race for Washington’s 3rd Congressional District, Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, D-Skamania, and Republican challenger Joe Kent of Yacolt are “effectively tied.”
That’s according to a recent poll from the Northwest Progressive Institute that surveyed 650 likely November general election voters between June 11 and 12.
Respondents were asked who they’d back for Congress if the general election were being held now.
Kent garnered 46 percent of support from the sample of likely voters, while Perez garnered 45 percent. Nine percent of likely voters said they remained undecided.
“Those are the initial horserace percentages from the survey,” said Andrew Villeneuve, the executive director of the Northwest Progressive Institute, a left-leaning nonprofit. “No questions about the candidates’ priorities or statements from the campaign trail were asked prior to the question that yielded these numbers.”
Roughly half of the respondents participated via landline; the other half participated online via text message invitation. The poll has a 3.9 percent margin of error, according to a news release. The Northwest Progressive Institute has not released all the data from its poll.
The race is a textbook definition of a toss-up, Villeneuve said.
In 2022, Perez defeated Kent by 2,629 votes after the two of them eclipsed longtime incumbent Jaime Herrera Beutler, a Republican, in the primary.
“It’s super tight, with both candidates polling in the mid-40s out of the gate,” he said. “It goes without saying that everything the candidates and the parties do in this race could matter. This is a contest with the potential to go to a recount.”
Also competing are Republican Leslie Lewallen and independent John Saulie-Rohman, both from Camas.
Lewallen is a Camas city councilor who argues that rematches rarely result in flipped outcomes.
Villeneuve said the poll asked whether voters would support Lewallen over Perez, but the organization chose not to release those results because “(Lewallen) doesn’t have any realistic chance of making it out of the top two” in the Aug. 6 primary.
“Washingtonians know they have a choice and pretending as though the primary election has been decided is disingenuous,” Lewallen said Monday. “One thing is abundantly clear with this poll: far-left, liberal groups want a rematch between Marie Gluesenkamp Perez and Joe Kent so our seat will stay blue. Joe Kent lost last election cycle and will lose again by an even bigger margin. I’m the only Republican who can win this seat, and I am continuing to share my message with Washington families every day.”
Lewallen has raised about $533,915 as of March 31, compared with Kent’s roughly $1.04 million and Perez’s $4.15 million, according to data from the Federal Elections Commission.
The race for Washington’s 3rd Congressional District will help determine whether the U.S. House flips Democratic or remains Republican-controlled, Villeneuve noted.
“For Democrats, the road to the House majority definitely runs through the greater Pacific Northwest,” he said by email. “For Republicans, getting WA-03 back is of paramount importance and could help them avoid losing the House.”
In 2022, the Northwest Progressive Institute conducted a similar poll that found Perez had a fighting chance in what was at the time considered a safe Republican district, even after Herrera Beutler’s loss.
“This cycle, Gluesenkamp Perez is the incumbent and is in an even better position to compete,” Villeneuve said.
Election officials will begin mailing ballots July 19 for Washington’s Aug. 6 primary election.
