But this campaign has another wild card: independent and third-party candidates. Early polls have found that when voters are offered a third choice, up to 17 percent grab it — enough to swing the election.
Those numbers don’t predict what will happen in November; in most years, the third-party vote shrinks rapidly as Election Day approaches. But they’re added evidence that voters yearn for choices different from the ones looming.
And that has encouraged a burgeoning list of independent and third-party candidates: Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who made his name as an anti-vaccine militant; Cornel West, a prominent Black academic and socialist activist; Jill Stein, the probable third-time nominee of the Green Party; and perhaps most intriguing, a well-funded group called No Labels that hopes to field a ticket with a moderate Republican and a moderate Democrat.
That’s a problem for Biden more than Trump. Strategists in both parties believe some of the president’s current voters are more likely to desert him if they see an appetizing alternative. A Bloomberg-Morning Consult poll in seven swing states last month found evidence of that: 16 percent of Biden voters said they might vote for an independent candidate, while only 11 percent of Trump voters said they were tempted to take the third-party route.
Historically, no third-party candidate has ever won a presidential election, but several have succeeded in tipping the balance.
The most important factor at this stage, however, is whether any of those third-party candidates can get on the ballot in the battleground states that will almost certainly decide the presidential election: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.
“The national numbers aren’t important,” said Doug Sosnik, a longtime Democratic strategist who worked for President Bill Clinton. “All that matters is how these candidates are doing in the states that will decide the election. That’s where a few percentage points can decide the whole thing.”
That’s why many Democratic strategists worry most about No Labels, a well-funded group that has a head start toward getting on the ballot in all 50 states. So far, No Labels has won ballot access in 14 states, including the battlegrounds of Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina.
Last week Third Way, a centrist Democratic think tank, issued a new warning to Democratic donors to steer clear of No Labels.
“Their own polling says they’d lose and be a spoiler for Trump,” Third Way Executive Vice President Matt Bennett said in an email.
It still is unclear whether No Labels will run a ticket at all. Still, if any of those third-party candidates get on the ballot in battleground states, they’ll present an added burden for Biden.
When a president runs for a second term, the election is normally a referendum on his record. Biden hopes to flip that by turning the election into a referendum on Trump. Third-party candidates could disrupt that by offering anti-Trump voters an escape route.
That means Biden won’t be able to win solely by stoking fears of his predecessor’s return. He’ll need to present a solid case that the third-party escape route is just another way of electing Trump.
