SEATTLE — If you like the snow, this unusually warm winter likely isn’t for you.
Snow levels this season have been “marginal, to say the least,” said Rune Harkestad, president of Kittitas County’s Kongsberger Ski Club, based east of Snoqualmie Pass.
December did bring a fair share of precipitation, Harkestad said, “but unfortunately, it all came at once, and most of it was rain.” The ski club’s groomer has had to adapt, getting up in the coldest hours of the night to pack down “whatever snow we get,” he said.
“It was pretty clear early on with the mild weather and unusually warm December, that this was going to be a challenge, and it has been,” Harkestad said.
Western Washington broke record-high temperatures in December, as Earth’s rapidly warming winters affect snowfall and winter sports, and as a strong, global, naturally occurring El Niño pushes tropical air into the region. During El Niño, Washington’s winters tend to be warmer than normal and snowpack is more likely to be below normal.
In Seattle, the National Weather Service recorded a mean daily temperature of 45.5 degrees last month, beating the previous record of 45.3 set in 2014. The average December low was 40.4 degrees, and the average high was 50.6 degrees.
Normally, the average low is 37.2 degrees and the average high is 47 degrees.
“If I were to say tomorrow would be 3 degrees warmer than today, it’s like, ‘big whoop,’” said Karin Bumbaco, the deputy state climatologist at the University of Washington. “But if you look at an average over an entire month, and you have an anomaly that’s 3 to 7 degrees Fahrenheit above normal, that’s pretty substantial.”
The record-setting difference was even greater in Quillayute, where the mean daily temperature was 48 degrees, 3.5 degrees higher than the previous record set in 2014.
Weather service meteorologist Harrison Rademacher said Quillayute’s proximity to the coast and increased precipitation from atmospheric rivers brings temperatures up.
It was a warm year in 2023 in Seattle overall, with an average temperature of 53.8 degrees, higher than the previous two years. August was the fourth-warmest recorded August, at an average of 69.9 degrees, and May was the second-warmest on record with an average of 60.9 degrees.
There was more variability during the year too, with a colder-than-normal start of the year and a heat event in May melting mountain snow earlier than usual.
Several factors go into record-breaking temperatures, Bumbaco said. “But in the larger context, the climate is changing and our Decembers and winters are warming in Washington on a long-term time scale,” she said.
The warm temperature anomalies have been consistent across the state, Bumbaco said, as average December temperatures are “anywhere between 3 and 6 degrees Fahrenheit above normal.”
Overall, Washington is faring better than the rest of the country. Seattle winter temperatures have increased by about 1 degree since 1970, according to nonprofit Climate Central. Seattle’s fastest-warming season is spring (hence the hot, hot May this year).
Globally, the past nine years have been the hottest nine years on record, and it doesn’t appear the trend will change in 2024.
Average winter temperatures increased in 97% of the cities Climate Central studied since 1970. Over that period, the average winter warming across those locations was 3.8 degrees.
“It is unlikely that that would reverse anytime soon, unless there’s very, very drastic reductions in greenhouse gas emissions,” Bumbaco said.
Warmer winters have the potential to impact agriculture, spring allergies and water supplies. They hurt the slopes, too. As of Wednesday morning, the average snowpack was about 47% of what the state normally sees, according to the SNOTEL network. The Olympics recorded about one-quarter of their average snowpack on Wednesday.
“December and January are usually the months in which we build the most snow in our mountains, so to have December go by and still see snowpack that is as low as it is now is a bit concerning,” Bumbaco said.
On Wednesday, the Kongsberger Ski Club measured a snow depth of about 16 inches on the lower trails. Around this time of year, the snow is usually triple or quadruple that, Harkestad said.
“We have managed to provide some sort of skiing,” Harkestad said. “We’re fortunate because we can head up to higher ground, up Amabilis [Mountain].”
The ski season isn’t doomed yet. Colder temperatures could be moving through Washington as soon as next week, hopefully bringing more snow to the mountains, according to the weather service.
“We have collectively been doing a snow dance, and looking at the forecast right now, it appears our snow dance has paid off,” Harkestad said.
The group hopes the cold temperatures stay the rest of the season, and prevent the snow from turning to slush as the sun rises.
But according to the Climate Prediction Center, Washington has high odds to have above-normal temperatures over the next three months as El Niño lingers.
“Doesn’t mean we won’t have a cold snap or two,” Bumbaco said.
