LONGVIEW — The centennial anniversary for Longview has mostly been a time to look back on the first 100 years of the city and consider how it changed. But the anniversary, and the turn to 2024, also provides a time to look ahead to Longview’s future.
How do you predict where Longview will be in five years, 10 years, or especially 100 years?
“Sometimes you just need to look at what’s going on on the ground and extrapolate your thinking out,” said Bill Fashing, executive director of the Cowlitz-Wahkiakum Council of Governments.
Fashing and other officials who are looking to Longview’s future see the city’s population continuing to grow, driving the need for major infrastructure changes, while the Longview City Council plans to soon update its vision for the city.
Population growth, bridge replacement
The Council of Governments makes plans for not just Cowlitz County, but the entire region of Southwest Washington. In December the agency finalized a long-term transportation plan for the area called Moving Forward 2050.
One of the major projects Fashing expects to see over the next few decades is the replacement of the Lewis and Clark Bridge. The bridge was built in 1930 and is coming up on its own 100-year anniversary.
In 1991, a bridge study commissioned by the Council of Governments found there was a need to either build a second bridge near Longview or add lanes to the existing bridge. Fashing said the council planned to spend the next few years “dusting that off” and creating a new study of options.
“This one is safe and well-maintained, but it is reaching an age where the obsolescence of it and the cost of maintaining it eventually gets to the point where it’ll make more sense to replace it,” Fashing said.
The Industrial Way-Oregon Way intersection upgrade, which has stalled out as a major construction project, will likely be folded into the bridge replacement instead of remaining a separate update.
In the bigger picture, Fashing said there could be additional construction and expansion along the entirety of Interstate 5 in Cowlitz County. The county could be added into a Cascadia Region of constant urban sprawl stretching from Vancouver, B.C., to Portland.
“Economists have been talking about this swath of the I-5 corridor for many years now and it is slowly taking hold and becoming a little more of a reality every year,” Fashing said.
The expected growth is clear in the population estimates included in the office’s Moving Forward report. According to the most recent Census data, the Longview Urban Area — including Kelso and the closest residents of Cowlitz County — includes roughly 70,000 people at the moment.
The COG report projects that number to increase to somewhere between 85,000 and 100,000 residents by 2050. The report said the growth could be even greater if the boundaries of the Longview Urban Area expand to include Kalama, Castle Rock or possibly even Woodland as the whole interstate stretch is developed.
The continued population growth places a lot of pressure on Longview and the rest of Cowlitz County to build additional housing, but the increased connections could also draw more industries and new businesses to invest in the city.
“One of the most difficult things in economic development is predicting the next big thing. And usually by the time that happens, we’re already in the thick if it,” said Ted Sprague, president of the Cowlitz Economic Development Council.
Setting new goals
In order to steer Longview’s future, city leaders need to know what goals to aim for. The Longview City Council will work on a long-term strategic plan for the city over the course of a two-day retreat beginning Jan. 19.
The strategic plan will work off of “Our Preferred Future,” a vision plan created by the city council and a public committee in 1994 to tailor a list of goals for Longview’s future. The plan was updated in 2007 and set the centennial anniversary as the new goal for improvements.
Some of the specific goals in the most recent plan worked out: internet access in most rural areas, a planned system of bike paths, and strong performances by the Port of Longview. Other goals fell short — like the establishment of a “major air carrier” at Southwest Washington Regional Airport — or remain an ongoing concern for the city — like reducing crime rates.
“There are some things missing from (the plan) now, because times have changed. Like, there was nothing in there about homelessness and housing,” Longview City Manager Kris Swanson said.
In the short term, Swanson said the updated plan will be used by city staff to prepare the city’s next biennial budget over the course of the year. It will also set broader goals about which areas are currently a challenge in Longview and what improvements the city should focus on.
Individual city departments make their own comprehensive plans, looking six years into the future. The new plan for Longview’s Parks and Recreation Department through to 2029 is open for public feedback on the city’s website through Jan. 10, with additional time for discussion at a City Council workshop on Jan. 11.
