U.S. workforce is seen expanding just 0.4% a year in coming decade

The U.S. labor market is expected to grow by 0.4% a year through 2033, less than one-third of the pace in the preceding decade, according to new Bureau of Labor Statistics projections.

The annual rate translates to 6.7 million additional jobs over the decade, or about 55,000 a month, the BLS said in a report published Thursday.

The main driver is slower population growth. The BLS forecasts that the “non-institutional population” — which excludes categories like prisoners or people in military service — will rise by 16.4 million through 2033. That’s about 5 million fewer than in the previous decade, and it translates to the slowest growth rate that the Bureau has projected since it began publishing the data in 1948.

One implication of the slowdown is that older people will make up a larger share of the population. Since those Americans are less likely to be working, the overall labor force participation rate is projected to fall some 1.4 percentage points over the decade, to 61.2% with both men and women experiencing declines.

The aging population, along with “a higher prevalence of chronic conditions, such as heart disease, cancer, and diabetes,” is expected to drive employment growth in the health care and social assistance industry, the BLS said.

Meanwhile, the declining numbers of younger cohorts — including school-age children — is expected to reduce demand for jobs in education.

The BLS also projects a 0.2% annual decline in retail employment, driven by technological advances and the spread of e-commerce. It expects that automated systems including AI will lead to fewer jobs for office and administrative support workers.\