BURIEN — When Sam Mendez rang the doorbell at a stranger’s home on Sunday afternoon, he wasn’t there to get out the vote.
In fact, this man had already voted. But his ballot cast nearly two weeks ago had not been counted, likely because of a signature issue.
In one of the tightest statewide races in 20 years, every vote really does matter, and Mendez’s efforts could influence who, and what party, oversees Washington’s public lands.
Since the Aug. 6 primary, the race for the next lands commissioner has narrowed significantly between Democrat Dave Upthegrove and GOP-endorsed Sue Kuehl Pederson. Both campaigns say they expect the margin to be so close it will trigger a recount.
As of 6 p.m. Monday, just 193 votes, or one-hundredth of a percentage point, separate Metropolitan King County Councilmember Upthegrove from former power analyst and natural resource officer Kuehl Pederson.
In Washington, the top two vote-getters in the primary advance to the general election, regardless of party affiliation. The Associated Press has already called one spot for former Republican U.S. Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler, who has had firm control of the lead with 22% of the vote as of Monday evening.
Mendez, a 37-year-old attorney for the Washington Health Care Authority and vice-chair of the 33rd District Democrats, walked and drove around his neighborhood, hoping to “cure ballots” or reach voters who have ballots that have been challenged and not counted. Often, these ballots can be fixed online or by mail.
“It’s going to come down to a couple hundred (votes),” Mendez said. “These cured ballots could very much mean the difference between winning and losing.”
Elsewhere in Eastern Washington, volunteers with the competing Kuehl Pederson campaign have been doing the same work, except trying to reach Republican voters whose ballots have been challenged. As the clock ticks down, both campaigns hope these voters can be the difference.
The deadline to cure ballots was Monday evening. Washington’s 39 counties will certify their individual election results by the end of Tuesday, and on Friday the Secretary of State will certify the state’s cumulative results and direct any recounts as required.
“We believe this race will be won by razor thin margins, and feel very encouraged by volunteers throughout the entire state who have offered their help and support for ballot curing,” said Sam Cardwell, Kuehl Pederson’s campaign manager, in a text message Monday morning.
Over 400 people have signed up to volunteer to cure ballots for the Upthegrove campaign, campaign manager Emma Mudd said.
“Win or lose, I’m honored to work alongside such great people. This is something special,” Upthegrove wrote on social media Sunday.
What would a recount look like?
Both campaigns say they are bracing for a difference of less than 2,000 votes, which would trigger a machine recount. A manual recount is required if the vote margin is less than 1,000 votes in this race.
According to the Secretary of State, there are still 2,019 accepted ballots yet to be counted.
The last election that triggered a statewide recount was in 2004 when Christine Gregoire became governor by 133 votes after two recounts. The last statewide primary race that triggered a recount was in 1960, when just 252 or 0.13% of the vote separated two Superintendent of Public Instruction candidates, according to Stuart Holmes, the director of elections with the Washington Secretary of State.
County and state officials will determine the deadline to complete a recount, which at latest will finish by Sept. 21, the deadline to send ballots and elections materials for overseas and military voters for the November general election. The Secretary of State would seek funding from the Legislature next session to cover the counties’ expenses for a recount.
The outcome of the primary could paint very different futures for the management of Washington forests. The Republican candidates would generally manage state lands how they have been in the past.
Upthegrove, on the other hand, has pledged to pause the sales of so-called legacy forests, which are not considered old growth but are stands of older trees that are more biodiverse, provide better wildlife habitat and combat climate change better than plantation forests logged on short rotations.
While both Herrera Beutler and Kuehl Pederson are expected to be friendlier to the timber industry, Upthegrove has refused to accept funds from the timber companies and fundraising groups.
Why is this taking so long?
To the Upthegrove campaign, the current margins amount to nothing less than an “I told you so” moment. Before the primary, Upthegrove had warned that with five Democratic candidates, the party risked splitting the vote and letting two Republicans advance to the November ballot.
Washington is only one of three states — including California and Louisiana — which have a “jungle” or nonpartisan primary, said Michael Pruser, a data analyst at Decision Desk HQ, an election news website that forecasts and calls elections nationally.
Part of the risk of that kind of electoral system is what is happening in the lands commissioners race, where a Democrat could be locked out of the general election despite the state consistently voting blue, he said. In the lands commissioner race, 57% of voters have cast a ballot for a Democrat.
Pruser said it would be “undemocratic” if it happens and the race is likely to “open some eyes” on the state’s electoral process and place scrutiny on why Democrats allowed five candidates to run.
Washington elections can also take a long time, since ballots that have been postmarked by Election Day can still be accepted up to two weeks after their deadline, he said. Counties are also not required to count and report ballots in a timely fashion, he said. These late drops allow Democrats and Republicans to get large swings late in the process, Pruser said.
For example, Walla Walla released the results of around 8,600 ballots, nearly half of all their ballots, over a week after the initial election night despite receiving 98% of the ballots the day after, he said.
“The current system is unfair to the candidates and the state, as a whole, to allow this process to take so long and to have so many different counties reporting on different schedules,” he said. “It’s very difficult to figure out what’s expected.”
A hand recount with seven candidates is not likely to be any faster and will require hundreds of volunteers, Pruser said. Washington also has one of the latest deadlines in the country for distributing their general election ballots, which means the recounts can drag on into September.
“This is going to take many more weeks and that process is extremely slow. If you thought these last two weeks were slow, the next four weeks will be even slower,” he said.
