For most of the year, the Ukrainian army has been in a defensive crouch across the more than 600-mile-long front line. It has been dealing with a Russian opponent whose use of glide bombs, artillery and so-called meat assaults — waves of Russian troops moving toward a position to overwhelm the defenders — has caused problems within the ranks.
Beginning peace talks with Moscow, a subject many Ukrainians viewed as taboo, is now being discussed publicly as an option. And while the Russians haven’t picked up swaths of territory like they did in the first few months of the war, their relentless offensive in Donbas over the last several months has forced Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to streamline procedures for mobilizing new men into the army.
The last week, however, has seen the tables turn. Even as the Russians continue to blast Ukrainian positions in the east of the country, at least 1,000 Ukrainian troops have executed a sneak attack across the border into Russia’s Kursk region.
This isn’t the first time the Russians have had to defend small villages along the border with Ukraine. But the attack is notable because the Ukrainians appeared to have taken Moscow by surprise. Ukraine has captured dozens of smaller villages in Kursk, forced Russian authorities to evacuate tens of thousands of people and caused panic in Moscow.
Despite the Russian Defense Ministry claiming that everything is under control, the Ukrainian thrust is another highly public humiliation for a Russian army that was generally viewed as lethal, competent and prepared before the war in Ukraine began.
The situation looks different today. The Russian army is certainly lethal, as Ukrainians can testify, and yet the sheen has worn off in terms of competence; nobody monitoring the war can argue differently with a straight face.
Even so, what Russians do have is mass. They have more of everything, which is precisely why Moscow has been able to keep this conflict going despite at one point suffering an astounding 70,000 casualties over two months. Whereas the Ukrainians have the motivation and the tactical skill, the Russians have the bodies and lead. And therein lies the main issue for the Ukrainian government: How can it prevail facing an adversary with such materiel advantages?
Kyiv has apparently come to the conclusion that shaking things up and catching Moscow off guard, on its own territory, no less, is one of those ways. Symbolically, the operation is paying off.
Even so, it’s important during times like these to go beyond the emotional and focus on the practical. For instance, what is Ukraine actually trying to achieve with this offensive? What are the objectives? And are those objectives worth the costs to other areas of the front?
Zelenskyy has been vague, merely stating that the offensive is designed to punish the Russian aggressor. Still others have said that Ukraine’s priority is to occupy a sliver of Russian territory over the long term, which would bolster Kyiv’s position at the negotiating table and perhaps convince Putin to minimize his expansionist desires.
Ukrainian officials are no doubt smiling as they watch their troops hang Ukrainian flags in a few Russian towns, but there’s no disputing the fact that this entire offensive is a huge gamble on their part. Zelenskyy and Ukraine’s top general, Oleksandr Syrskyi, likely hoped Russia would deal with the situation by redeploying some troops from Eastern Ukraine.
But that doesn’t seem to be happening. The pace of Russian attacks on Ukrainian positions in this region has stayed the same. As one Ukrainian press officer told The New York Times, “Our guys do not feel any relief.”
Ukraine’s successes on Russian soil today could very well turn into a pyrrhic victory tomorrow.
Daniel DePetris is a fellow at Defense Priorities and a foreign affairs columnist for the Chicago Tribune.
