A tropical depression is likely to form Sunday or Monday in the Atlantic and move toward the Caribbean islands, where watches and warnings are expected to be posted within hours, the National Hurricane Center said.
If the system develops into a named storm, it would become Tropical Storm Ernesto.
Storms associated with a tropical wave located roughly midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles continued to organize Sunday morning. As of 8 a.m. Sunday, the hurricane center increased its odds of strengthening into a tropical system within 48 hours to 70 percent.
The disturbance is expected to move west-northwest and could approach the Greater Antilles — which include Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Jamaica and the Cayman Islands — by the middle of next week.
Hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, is about to enter the busiest time of the year, from mid-August to October.
Though July was quiet, experts at Colorado State University said last week that the remainder of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season should be “extremely active,” with the likelihood of 10 more hurricanes.
Colorado State’s department of atmospheric science has released its final 2024 hurricane season forecast for the year, calling for a “well-above-average” August through November.
One bright note is that the department reduced its number of named storms from its July forecast, from 25 to 23. The 1991-to-2020 average was 14.4.
The Colorado State team still expects 12 hurricanes (the 1991-to-2020 average was 7.2) and is forecasting that six of those will reach major hurricane strength (Category 3, 4 or 5). The 1991-to-2020 average was 3.2.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Thursday echoed Colorado State’s prediction in its updated 2024 hurricane season forecast, calling for an “extremely active” remainder of the season.
Debby became the fourth named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
