Cassandras seldom get opportunities to be right about two disasters. Even the original Cassandra scored no notable victories after predicting the fall of Troy. But when a seer who successfully called one catastrophe warns of another coming, you might want to listen.
Years ahead of the financial crisis, David Burt saw trouble brewing in subprime mortgages and started betting on a crisis, winning himself a cameo in The Big Short by Michael Lewis in addition to lots of money. Now Burt runs DeltaTerra Capital, a research firm he founded to warn investors about the next housing crisis. This one will be caused by climate change.
In a webinar with journalists last month, Burt argued that U.S. homeowners’ wildfire and flood risks are underinsured by $28.7 billion a year. As a result, more than 17 million homes, representing nearly 19% of total U.S. home value, are at risk of suffering what could total $1.2 trillion in value destruction.
“This is not a ‘global financial crisis’ kind of event,” Burt said, noting the total housing market is worth about $45 trillion. “But in the communities where the impacts are happening, it will feel like the Great Recession.”