Crisp: Sleepwalking into civil war

A moviegoer could plausibly leave the theater without being particularly moved to wonder: “Could it happen here?”

For that momentous question, consider Barbara F. Walter’s “How Civil Wars Start and How to Stop Them,” published in 2022. Walter is a political scientist who has studied civil wars for three decades, particularly the circumstances conducive to the outbreak of civic violence.

Walter reports on her work on the Political Instability Task Force, an effort initiated by the CIA to identify factors that indicate a nation’s vulnerability to civic unrest. The task force came up with 38 elements that expose a nation to risk, such as income inequality, discrimination, extreme factionalism and diminished confidence in elections.

One of the most predictive factors is “anocracy.” Strong democracies do not have civil wars; neither do full autocracies. But nations that embody elements of both democracy and autocracy — anocracies — are particularly vulnerable. According to Walter, in January 2021 the U.S. slipped into the dangerous middle ground of anocracy.

The essential ingredients for a consequential level of society-disrupting violence are all present in the United States: committed factionalism based on demographic changes; fringe groups’ capacity to organize on social media; and, above all, an overabundance of powerful firearms and enough Americans willing to use them, a volatile mixture that doesn’t require much of a spark to explode.

Some have suggested that modern America doesn’t have issues sufficiently contentious to provide such a spark. I’m not so sure.

In the early days of our country, the issue was taxes. In 1786, Massachusetts farmers took up arms against the pre-constitution U.S. over taxes in the short-lived Shays’ Rebellion. The Whiskey Rebellion of 1791 — taxes again, on whiskey this time — required the intervention of George Washington.

In 1861, the issue was slavery, which embodied a disagreement so powerful and intractable that it led to the Civil War and the deaths of 620,000 soldiers.

Is modern America so divided that the only solution is violence? For example, are our abortion-rights and anti-abortion factions any less committed to the outcome of that conflict than the abolitionists and the plantation owners of the antebellum South?

And what about the outcome of an election? By definition, in a democracy once the method we use for resolving conflicts — elections — has failed, what options remain?

In short, it’s naïve to imagine that modern America doesn’t face issues for which citizens would be willing to take up arms. And we haven’t even mentioned the Second Amendment.

Countries nearly always sleepwalk into civil war. Walter’s essential message is a warning against complacency in the face of a threat that seems inconceivable. Walter says that she has interviewed many people who have lived through civil wars. They all say the same thing: “I didn’t see it coming.”