Leubsdorf: Third-party won’t win, but may make difference

But history suggests they could play havoc with the outcome. And polls show they almost certainly would help the Republicans — probably Donald Trump — beat President Joe Biden.

Past alternative candidacies can be divided into two general categories: those who made strong national efforts — and those who focused more on specific regions or states. Many have challenged the two major parties, and several influenced the outcome because of support in specific states or regions.

In 2016, Green Party nominee Jill Stein polled more votes in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin than Trump’s narrow margins over Hillary Clinton.

That could happen again in 2024, thanks to the “No Labels” effort and author Cornel West, who is seeking the Green Party nomination.

In a recent Quinnipiac University poll, nearly half of those sampled said they would consider voting for an alternative candidate. But when polls list specific alternatives, that proportion drops substantially.

Still, West could attract Democrats who think Biden isn’t liberal enough, like Stein did in 2016. A “No Labels” candidate might attract those who consider him too liberal and Trump too conservative, though the appeal of their current prospects seems questionable.

Manchin would certainly attract votes in West Virginia, but probably not enough to prevent a Republican win. He might tip nearby Pennsylvania to Trump. But his appeal elsewhere is questionable, and he says he won’t run unless he thinks he can win.

Lieberman’s home region appeal is questionable. Connecticut Democrats rejected him in 2006, forcing him to win reelection as an independent, and he finished fifth in the 2004 presidential primary in New Hampshire, New England’s chief swing state.

Democrat Nixon is unknown outside Missouri, where he served two terms as governor. But the state is so Republican an alternative would likely have little impact.

Republican Huntsman’s 2012 presidential bid flopped badly, and he withdrew after finishing third in an all-out New Hampshire effort. He lost a 2020 bid to regain Utah’s governorship.

Republican Hogan served two terms as governor of heavily Democratic Maryland. But his chosen successor lost the Republican primary to a Trump supporter.

Still, even a small vote could influence the result in closely contested states. The “No Labels” group may be able to raise substantial money — much of it from Republicans — and qualify for multiple state ballots. It’s already done so in Arizona, which Biden carried by only 10,000 votes in 2020.

But history indicates only a prominent nominee can make a major national impact and, even then, is unlikely to do more than influence which rival candidate wins.