BELLINGHAM — “The Blob” is back. That swath of warm water in the northeast Pacific Ocean can affect Washington’s weather, ecology and economy.
Its appearance from 2013 to 2016 was blamed for the death of 1 million seabirds and had other environmental effects, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
This year, The Blob could result in a smaller snowpack for skiers and snowboarders, meaning less recreational spending in Whatcom County and less of the kind of food that helps young salmon survive their critical first year at sea, state climatologist Nick Bond told The Bellingham Herald.
It also could mean continued drought and less water for farming, and it could steer this fall’s sockeye salmon run away from U.S. waters, as The Herald reported in 2014.
Bond, a University of Washington professor who was among the first researchers to notice The Blob in 2013, said ocean temperatures off Washington are running 3 to 4 degrees above normal for late summer.
The Blob appeared again in 2019, and it could be becoming a cyclical event, Bond said.
“There’s certainly warm water along the coast of the Pacific Northwest. It’s a massive heat wave. This is maybe the son or the grandson of The Blob,” he said in an interview.
Waters off the Olympic Peninsula were 61.8 degrees on Thursday, and the ocean was 63 degrees at the Columbia River mouth, when temperatures in the mid-50s are more normal, he said.
“Some of these species that we care about the most, the salmon, prefer colder water for their prey. The cold-water (forage fish and plankton) tend to be more energy-rich” and provide better nutrition, especially for younger salmon, Bond said.
In addition, a looming El Niño — a weather pattern that brings a greater chance of a warm, dry winter — could make matters worse in the months ahead, Bond said.
“When you have conditions that promote warming, it’s just that much warmer,” he said.
“Some of these temperatures will moderate. But overall, our waters will stay warmer well into 2024,” he added.
And that could have consequences next year for salmon, farmers and others, Bond said, because a dry winter would mean a poor snowpack and less runoff into rivers and groundwater for irrigation.
So The Blob, whether or not it’s due to climate change, will have consequences, Bond said.
“It’s the combination of warm and dry that could really be a problem because the reservoirs won’t fill or recharge the groundwater,” he said.
