The following is presented as part of The Columbian’s Opinion content, which offers a point of view in order to provoke thought and debate of civic issues. Opinions represent the viewpoint of the author. Unsigned editorials represent the consensus opinion of The Columbian’s editorial board, which operates independently of the news department.
As Israel relentlessly bombs Gaza and moves troops toward the border, it is hard to predict how the war with Hamas terrorists will end.
The scenes of carnage in Israeli towns and villages near the Gaza border — 900 dead, including scores of families with small children executed in cold blood; young women dragged off as hostages, some with babies; and 260 young people gunned down at a music concert — have horrified Israel and much of the world. This was an Islamic State-style slaughter.
Yet the challenges confronting Israel in its expressed goal of smashing Hamas are mammoth. The terrorist group and other militants are holding around 150 Israelis hostage in Gaza and have threatened to kill them if the bombing continues. The war could expand to the occupied West Bank and to Lebanon, where Hezbollah militants, backed by Iran, have 150,000 missiles pointed at Israel.
Below are a few questions I’ve had from readers that I’m mulling over in my own mind, along with answers based on conversations with Israelis, conference calls, and my own experiences in Israel, the West Bank and Gaza over several decades.
How could this disaster have happened?
Israel suffered an unimaginable security failure. Egyptian intelligence officials say their Israeli counterparts ignored repeated warnings that “something big” was about to happen with Gaza. Netanyahu’s office denies this, but Hamas training operations near the Gaza border fence, prior to the attack, were apparently dismissed as unimportant.
“No one was willing to see that they were practicing,” said Nimrod Novik, an Israeli Mideast expert who advised former Prime Minister Shimon Peres and is a board member of the Foreign Policy Research Institute in Philadelphia. Only a handful of depleted units were guarding the Gaza border; they“ were easily overrun.
Why did Hamas attack now, and what was its goal?
Most experts concur that a main goal was to disrupt a potential U.S.-led deal to normalize diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel. Iran, a key backer of Hamas, sees such an agreement as a threat.
However, Hamas had bigger goals. Taking hostages gives Hamas bargaining chips to exchange for Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails. Moreover, its military “success” boosts its prestige on the West Bank, which it dreams of taking over.
Why do Gazans support Hamas?
Not all have in the past. Hamas won one-third of the vote in the 2006 Palestinian elections, but a bizarre election system gave it a majority of parliamentary seats. Hamas then seized total power by military force in Gaza in 2007.
Can Israel destroy Hamas militarily?
That’s unclear. Israel has tried several times before with bomb strikes and limited military incursions. Each time, Hamas has bounced back.
What is the best possible outcome? And can the United States help?
First, it would be best if a wider war could be avoided. Second, if Arab mediators, such as Qatar (which provides Hamas with funds to run its government), could negotiate a prisoner exchange. And third, if the Netanyahu government can pursue a military strategy that includes a long-term vision for Gaza and the West Bank.
Right now, all of the above look doubtful. The third is the most problematic, as Israel faces one of the greatest challenges in its history. At this writing, Netanyahu is resisting the formation of a national unity government with opposition parties, as has been the norm during previous wars.
U.S. assistance — with weapons or intelligence or diplomacy — can be useful only if the Israeli government has both a short- and long-term strategy to succeed. Yet Netanyahu refuses, so far, to meet opposition demands that he sideline his most radical cabinet ministers who could push Israel toward a self-defeating expansion of the war deep into Gaza and the West Bank.
One can only hope that, somehow, wiser heads will prevail.
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