The following is presented as part of The Columbian’s Opinion content, which offers a point of view in order to provoke thought and debate of civic issues. Opinions represent the viewpoint of the author. Unsigned editorials represent the consensus opinion of The Columbian’s editorial board, which operates independently of the news department.
Is it possible that Israel could win a military victory in Gaza and still lose the war?
I understand the reason for Israel’s invasion of Gaza to destroy Hamas, which carried out a hideous terrorist attack murdering more than 1,000 civilians in one day. Any government would have done the same, especially since Hamas, which favors the destruction of Israel and all the Jews within, has publicly called for more such attacks.
Yet even if Israel achieves military success — meaning the destruction of Hamas infrastructure and leadership and release of hostages — what comes afterward will define whether Israel has strengthened its security, or paved the way for the next version of Hamas.
The definition of victory in Gaza cannot be measured just in military terms.
Why so? I agree with Ami Ayalon, who headed Shin Bet, Israel’s domestic intelligence service, from 1995-2000. “Hamas is not just a military capability; it is an ideology,” he told me via phone from Israel. “Now, we are trying to defeat a military leadership of 15-20 people, but that would only be a military success, not a victory.”
Ayalon, who has studied Hamas for many years, believes that its ideology — calling for the destruction of Israel — has won popular appeal in Gaza because “it is the only organization that fights for Palestinian freedom and the end of occupation.
“How can we defeat an ideology? The only way to win is to present another ideology.”
Israel will not win, he said, unless it creates a political horizon for Palestinians that can compete with Hamas’ calls for the destruction of Israel. For Ayalon, that means reestablishing the real prospect of two states — one Jewish, and one Palestinian — living side by side.
That vision may look like a fantasy at the moment (although the White House supports it verbally). And to be honest, I am still thinking through whether it could be possible.
But until Palestinians are offered a clear political future, the fighting won’t end. Ayalon recalled how Palestinian public opinion shifted when they foresaw the prospect of statehood after the Oslo agreements. True, that did not halt Hamas terrorism at the time — which helped derail peace negotiations — but Palestinian public opinion strongly opposed Hamas’ methods at the time.
As Israel levels Gaza City and other smaller cities, in its search for Hamas tunnels, the Israeli government refuses to make plans for what will follow, despite U.S. urging.
The White House has called for strengthening the weak Palestinian Authority in the West Bank, in hopes it will ultimately replace Hamas as the governing body in Gaza. Instead, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues to undermine the Palestinian Authority, as he has done for years. This, even though Palestinian Authority police help Israel put down Hamas operatives in the West Bank.
As for who will govern Gaza after the war — when Gaza City is now an uninhabitable ruin, and other towns have been bombed to the ground — that question seems of little interest to Netanyahu’s government.
With more than a million internal refugees from northern Gaza crammed into southern towns. Israel has been bombing these supposedly safe zones where refugees are taking shelter, and appears ready to attack the south with ground forces. This, when all Gaza civilians are lacking food, fuel, water, and medical supplies; Israel is barely letting such vital necessities trickle in from Egypt.
Let me repeat that Israel has a right to self-defense, and a right to destroy a terrorist group that committed unspeakable crimes against civilians. However, the lack of vision of the Netanyahu government is deeply worrying to Arab leaders who have established peace with Israel, or want to in the future, like Saudi Arabia.
Without a political future for Palestinians, a new ideological movement aimed at the destruction of Israel is bound to rise from Gaza’s ruins, and spread through the region. Down that road lies Hamas 2.0.
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