For the first time since record keeping began, Earth has surpassed a critical temperature threshold that scientists have long warned could unleash the worst effects of climate change.
On Friday the planet soared 2.07 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, or the 1850 to 1900 average, according to Europe’s Copernicus Climate Change Service.
Two degrees Celsius — or 3.6 degree Fahrenheit — is the internationally agreed upon upper limit of warming established by the 2015 Paris climate agreement. The agreement seeks to hold the increase in the global temperature to well below that limit, and preferably below 1.5 degrees Celsius, in recognition that “this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change.”
Copernicus officials shared the finding Monday in a post on X. Deputy director Samantha Burgess said preliminary data also show that the global temperature on Saturday measured 2.06 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, indicating that there are “now two November 2023 days” where the temperature exceeded the benchmark.
Scientists have long warned that sustained warming of 1.5 degrees or more will lead to cascading risks for human and planetary systems, including negative impacts on ecosystems, biodiversity, water supplies and food security. Warming land and ocean temperatures are already contributing to sea level rise, melting ice sheets and increased hazards such as heat waves, drought and extreme precipitation, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
While significant challenges are expected for many regions and systems at 1.5 degrees of warming, “risks would be larger at 2 degrees Celsius of warming and an even greater effort would be needed for adaptation to a temperature increase of that magnitude,” the IPCC says.
However, caution is warranted when it comes to a single day’s data, said Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies. He noted that the terms of the Paris climate agreement are more concerned with sustained, years-long warming at those temperatures.
Surpassing 2 degrees once or twice does not indicate a point of no return, Schmidt said. But the record-setting weekend is noteworthy in the context of larger trends.
