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Candidate learning presidential run harder than one for governor
By Carl Leubsdorf
Published: May 7, 2023, 6:03am
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Early assessments of presidential candidacies are dangerous — and often wrong.
“Ike is running like a dry creek,” the Scripps-Howard newspapers concluded in the summer of 1952, less than three months before World War II hero Dwight Eisenhower captured the presidency with more than 55 percent of the vote.
More recently, then Sens. Barack Obama and John McCain were both tabbed as losers because of slow starts in the year before they won the 2008 Democratic and Republican presidential nominations.
On the other hand, some highly touted candidates flopped, like Mayor Rudy Giuliani in 2008 and Govs. Scott Walker and Jeb Bush in 2016.
That brings us to the curious case of Ron DeSantis. Long touted as a top 2024 GOP prospect, some pundits are already counting the Florida governor out before he formally enters the presidential race, possibly later this month.
“DeSantis loses momentum before his campaign has even started,” was a recent headline on NBC News’ “Meet the Press First Read” column. “DeSantis, on defense, shows signs of slipping in polls,” was the header of a New York Times analysis.
Early polls, always quirky and often questionable, show Donald Trump’s margin over DeSantis among Republicans has increased at a time when the former president’s principal headlines billboarded his New York indictment for allegedly paying “hush money” to a porn star.
Reelected in November by more than 1.5 million votes, the Florida governor is learning what many other politicians have discovered over the years: Running for president is a lot harder than running for statewide office.
When he recently stumbled by characterizing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as a “territorial dispute,” DeSantis attracted several days of headlines — and sharp criticism from Trump and other top Republicans.
At the same time, DeSantis has seemed more eager to fight with Mickey Mouse and Bud Light than Donald Trump. But as he tries to translate his Florida popularity into national success, DeSantis needs to realize they’re not his main problems.
His problems are that neither political defeat nor legal indictment has so far shaken Trump’s hold on the GOP electorate, and DeSantis has yet to develop a strategy to loosen that hold.
Like other hopefuls, he has been reluctant to attack Trump directly, though he made several pointed personal comments about the former president.
Instead, DeSantis has adopted the questionable strategy of attacking Trump from the right, taking even more extreme positions on cultural issues like abortion and joining the current Republican effort to curb people identifying as transgender.
“Florida is where woke goes to die,” DeSantis declared in his second inaugural address, touting a series of measures designed to protect Florida’s kids from conversing about racial and sexual issues.
DeSantis, who gained a reputation in Florida as not the most personable of politicians, is paying a price for failing to cultivate friendships with fellow Republicans. That has been especially noteworthy in his inability to attract support from fellow Florida Republicans. So far, 11 of its 19 GOP House members have endorsed Trump, with just one for DeSantis.
DeSantis’ recent Washington meeting to woo Republican House members failed to net him any additional endorsements. But Texas Rep. Lance Gooden walked out of the room and endorsed Trump.
The next day, one of Florida’s most senior lawmakers, Rep. Vern Buchanan, also endorsed Trump and was invited for dinner at Mar-a-Lago.
Still, DeSantis remains the only Republican aspirant besides Trump with a national following. Despite current campaigning, the race won’t really be joined until the first televised debate in August in Milwaukee. By then, Trump could face additional charges stemming from his efforts to overturn his 2020 defeat.
Meanwhile, polls show Trump’s support is less solid in Iowa and New Hampshire than nationally, a pattern that some years ago foretold the subsequent early caucus and primary problems of another front-runner, Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Unfortunately for DeSantis, retail politicking is crucial in Iowa and New Hampshire. But he has yet to show he enjoys or excels in that, complicating the effort to overcome his current deficit.
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