This week, Secretary of State Antony Blinken travels to Beijing — the latest, welcome effort by Washington to inject stability into a dangerously fraught U.S.-China relationship.
Yet despite their progress toward constructive diplomacy, the two nations’ relationship remains at the lowest point since relations were normalized in the ’70s, characterized by mutual suspicion and hostility, especially when it comes to the issue of Taiwan.
A recent close encounter between a U.S. destroyer and a Chinese warship in the Taiwan Strait highlights how — unless Beijing and Washington take meaningful steps to avert it — the dangerous dynamics driving the world’s two most powerful countries toward a possible crisis can quickly overwhelm any nascent diplomatic thaw.
The incident involved a potentially dangerous maneuver by the Chinese warship, which cut in front of the U.S. warship at a distance of 150 yards. This unprecedented maneuver — the first of its kind in the Taiwan Strait — reflects an escalation in Beijing’s efforts to challenge what it sees as an American escalation regarding Taiwan.
China’s perceptions are shaped in part by an erosion of Washington’s long-standing One China policy and increased U.S. efforts to elicit greater support for its Taiwan policy from distant allies like Canada.
China’s latest action exemplifies the larger “tit-for-tat” dynamic that has come to define U.S. and Chinese interactions, whereby each side doubles down on what it sees as deterrence signals that in fact only serve to provoke further such signals.
Beijing might be attempting to create a new normal by employing more aggressive military means to achieve a position of military dominance around Taiwan, or at least to counter what it views as U.S. efforts to militarily dominate or intimidate China in its backyard. China’s Defense Minister Li Shangfu said as much in recent remarks at the Shangri-la Dialogue, criticizing the U.S. for exercising “hegemony of navigation” near Taiwan. He called for Washington to “take good care of its own territorial airspace and waters.”
Washington of course rejects such Chinese efforts and justifications, asserting that it is merely exercising its legal right to operate militarily outside of China’s territorial waters. But it is also clearly intent on sending a strong deterrence signal via such actions.
In this vicious cycle, neither government acknowledges that it is escalating and thereby worsening the situation, despite the obvious contrary reality.
To avoid the next close encounter turning into a crisis, Washington should build on its recent diplomatic overtures by making its commitment to the One China policy clear and credible. The United States should reaffirm its openness to any long-term peaceful, uncoerced outcome of the Taiwan situation — something it used to say regularly. As a gesture of its seriousness, the United States should also reduce the frequency of its “freedom of navigation” operations and Taiwan Strait transits.
None of this should occur in the absence of Beijing conveying its commitment to a peaceful resolution of the Taiwan issue, and ending its military pushback in the Taiwan Strait. It also needs to confirm that it has no deadline for resolving the Taiwan issue.
If Washington and Beijing truly seek to avoid a disastrous conflict, constructive diplomacy designed to stabilize their bilateral relationship is paramount. They should begin discussions to reach these understandings on Taiwan, the most critical issue affecting peace and security in Asia and beyond.
Until both sides work constructively to unwind this tit-for-tat dynamic, close calls like this will keep happening — and a serious crisis over Taiwan may not be a matter of if, but when.
Michael Swaine is a Senior East Asia Fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.
