Forecasters expect Southwest Washington drought to continue

The National Integrated Drought Information system reported that 2023’s snow season eased the potential of drought in much of the western United States — except for the Pacific Northwest.

In January, a series of atmospheric rivers delivered rain and snow over California and portions of its neighboring states. At the same time, forecasters were concerned about drought farther north, conditions that are now developing.

The National Integrated Drought Information System reported that abnormal dryness and moderate drought have appeared in Western Washington and Oregon over the past three weeks.

Drought development in Southwest Washington and northern Oregon will likely continue through the end of September, according to the National Weather Service.

Warm spring temperatures mixed with dryness caused rapid snow melt. Seventy observation sites throughout Oregon, Washington, Idaho and Montana reported that snowpack melted more than a week early. However, snowpack was unseasonably deep by mid-June in the southern Cascades, a condition sustained earlier in the year by the region’s cold winter temperatures.

The National Integrated Drought Information System detected early signs of an El Niño climate pattern that are projected to emerge by early fall and strengthen in the winter.

This climate pattern originates in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator and pushes warm winds across North America. It’s a deviation from normal east to west trade winds and occurs every two to seven years, with the latest event unfolding in 2018-2019.

What follows is a mix of impacts across the continent. The northern U.S. and Canada become dryer and warmer than normal, while the southern U.S. will experience wetter weather. Respective regions then have a greater likelihood of wildfires or increased flooding.