The following is presented as part of The Columbian’s Opinion content, which offers a point of view in order to provoke thought and debate of civic issues. Opinions represent the viewpoint of the author. Unsigned editorials represent the consensus opinion of The Columbian’s editorial board, which operates independently of the news department.
Last year’s column successfully predicted Democratic Senate gains and a smaller-than-expected Republican House takeover. Here is our not-totally-serious forecast for 2023:
JANUARY — Rep. Kevin McCarthy falls six votes short of 218 in House speaker election as 10 Freedom Caucus members vote for challenger Arizona Rep. Andy Biggs. As deadlock persists, Newt Gingrich offers to return as speaker. President Joe Biden stuns Democrats by announcing he won’t seek second term. House Republicans ditch McCarthy and embrace Gingrich, who is elected on the fourth ballot. After Keri Lake fails to reverse 2022 Arizona result, she announces she is moving to Kentucky.
FEBRUARY — Vice President Kamala Harris says she may seek presidency. Washington grand jury indicts former President Donald Trump on charge of obstructing the certification of 2020 electoral votes. Lake announces bid for Kentucky governor. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene launches probe of U.S. spending in Ukraine.
MARCH — Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, former Vice President Mike Pence and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie all join GOP race against Trump. U.S. attorney in Delaware announces plea bargain with Hunter Biden in which he pleads guilty to one count of tax evasion. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg resigns to seek presidency.
APRIL — Harris says she is weighing presidential bid. Atlanta grand jury indicts Trump for trying to reverse 2020 Georgia result. Rudy Giuliani disbarred in District of Columbia for pressing baseless 2020 Trump election challenge. Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and California Gov. Gavin Newsom join Democratic race.
MAY — Economy continues growth, defying recession forecasts. Biden job approval soars to 51 percent. Giuliani, barred from working as lawyer, announces he will run for president. Trump names “My Kevin” McCarthy as campaign manager. Lake loses Kentucky primary, claims it was rigged.
JUNE — Trump names Lake as 2024 running mate. House rejects debt-ceiling increase, forcing federal government shutdown. Rep. Ronny Jackson launches GOP primary challenge to Texas Sen. Ted Cruz as the “true conservative.” Russian President Vladimir Putin rules out cease-fire.
JULY — After Lake says she respects Constitution, Trump replaces her with South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem. Buttigieg paces Democratic race at 23 percent, unannounced candidate Harris at 15 percent. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis joins GOP race and is hailed as front-runner. With Trump running fifth in GOP polls at 11 percent, Noem resigns as his running mate and says she, too, will seek presidency.
AUGUST — Harris says she will decide presidential bid soon. In Iowa GOP straw poll, Pence unexpectedly wins with 17 percent; DeSantis is fourth at 9 percent, one point ahead of Trump. Trump says straw poll was rigged. House votes to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas for failing to fix border problem. Government stays shut; stock market plunges. Republicans cave, pass bill raising debt ceiling.
SEPTEMBER — Harris opts out of 2024 race, saying it’s too late to put together a successful campaign. Trump goes on trial in Atlanta. Putin, claiming victory, calls for Ukraine cease-fire; Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, claiming victory, rejects it. Hung jury in Atlanta Trump case, 11-1 for conviction. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton goes on trial for securities fraud, eight years after indictment.
OCTOBER — Congress fails to approve federal funding by Oct. 1 deadline, shutting down government for second time this year. Biden names Arizona independent Sen. Krysten Sinema as U.S. ambassador to Mexico, ending threat of three-way 2024 Arizona Senate race.
NOVEMBER — Whitmer is surprise star of Iowa Democratic Liberty and Justice Dinner. Paxton acquitted in fraud case, joins Republican primary race against Cruz. Polls show close GOP race: Trump 23, DeSantis 21, Pence 20, Noem 15.
DECEMBER — Congress agrees to fund government, ending 63-day impasse. Trump dismisses “My Kevin” McCarthy as campaign manager, names TV host Tucker Carlson. Biden endorses Whitmer for Democratic nomination. Trump and Whitmer lead White House fields. D.C. judge sets Trump trial date for Jan. 16, 2024, date of Iowa caucuses.
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