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Leubsdorf: 2024 might look like …

A look at how big events of election year could unfold

By Carl P. Leubsdorf

Published: December 30, 2023, 6:01am

Here is what might happen — or maybe not — in 2024:

JANUARY — Alabama defeats Washington for college football national championship. Supreme Court overturns Colorado’s ouster of Donald Trump from GOP primary ballot but rejects Trump’s argument that he has immunity from criminal prosecution. Former president easily wins Iowa caucuses, but Ron DeSantis does better than expected and claims the “Big Mo.” In New Hampshire primary stunner, independents help Nikki Haley edge Trump, with Chris Christie third and DeSantis fourth. Trump claims fraud. President Joe Biden wins Democrats’ nonbinding primary on write-ins but with only 58 percent. Congress fails to renew government spending, shutting six agencies. Israel declares victory in war against Hamas.

FEBRUARY — Speaker Mike Johnson averts full-scale shutdown by accepting another bipartisan funding measure, including aid for Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan and the border. Conservative critics introduce resolution to oust him, but it fails, due to Democratic abstentions. Trump routs Haley in South Carolina primary; DeSantis, a distant third, drops out. Biden approval hits new low at 31 percent.

MARCH — With Super Tuesday victories in California, Massachusetts, Texas and eight other states, Trump extends lead over Haley. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ousted, replaced by opposition leader Benny Gantz. Trump clinches GOP nomination with victories in Arizona, Florida, Illinois and Ohio as his trial for his role in the Jan. 6 insurrection begins in Washington. New York jury convicts Trump of paying “hush money” to former porn star before 2016 election.

APRIL — Washington jury convicts Trump on three of four counts; Trump claims vindication in acquittal (and appeals the three convictions). His lead over Biden increases to 8 points. Group awards its nomination to second place finisher Liz Cheney. Across-the-board government spending cuts take effect as Congress fails to resolve its yearlong impasse.

MAY — Hunter Biden convicted in California on two counts of income tax evasion. President Biden abruptly abandons his reelection bid. California Gov. Gavin Newsom promptly announces candidacy. Biden says he won’t endorse a successor.

JUNE — Initial Democratic delegate polls show a wide-open race among Vice President Kamala Harris, Newsom and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. Congress deadlocks on spending levels for the year starting Oct. 1. Her fellow Great Lakes states Democratic governors endorse Whitmer to head Democratic ticket. Top House Democrats back Harris, while most Senate Democrats support Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar.

JULY — Polls show Harris, Klobuchar and Whitmer all beating Trump. At Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Trump spurns runner-up Nikki Haley as an “ultra-moderate RINO,” picks moderate-turned-MAGA enthusiast New York Rep. Elise Stefanik as his running mate.

AUGUST — In the first contested presidential nomination since 1952, the Democratic National Convention chooses Whitmer on the third ballot. She picks Georgia Sen. Raphael Warnock as her running mate. Biden and Harris back ticket, join traditional platform unity celebration after Whitmer’s acceptance speech lists Cabinet choices, including Harris as attorney general. Liz Cheney drops out and endorses Whitmer.

SEPTEMBER — First post-convention poll shows Whitmer leading Trump by 3 points with independent candidate Robert Kennedy Jr. at 18 percent. Trump announces he will participate in debate commission’s debates. Kennedy qualifies for the first debate. In debate, Kennedy echoes Trump’s attacks. Congress fails to approve spending past Sept. 30.

OCTOBER — Another month, another government shutdown. Florida Supreme Court rejects DeSantis plea to stop abortion initiative. Kennedy’s support drops sharply after debate. Trump says he won’t debate any more. Warnock-Stefanik debate draws highest rating of any vice presidential debate in history.

NOVEMBER — Whitmer elected first woman president, 333-205, carrying Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Florida. Kennedy votes help Whitmer carry New Hampshire. Trump refuses to concede. Democrats regain House and, with an upset in Florida, retain 51-seat Senate majority. House GOP ousts outgoing Speaker Johnson as their leader, names Ohio Rep. Jim Jordan. Sen. Mitch McConnell steps down as Senate Republican leader, succeeded by South Dakota Sen. John Thune.

DECEMBER — Democrats elect New York Rep. Hakeem Jeffries as first Black speaker. Trump rejects Electoral College verdict, vows to “fix things” in 2028.

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