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News / Clark County News

Weather Eye: Woolly bears’ forecast is in … maybe

By Patrick Timm
Published: October 9, 2022, 6:00am

The withering blackberries on the vine and dry leaves rustling along the tattered blades of grass were the backdrop of my annual trek in search of one of nature’s lowly weather prognosticators, the woolly bear caterpillar.

First off, I can tell you the specimens I discovered seemed to be rejoicing given the lazy, hazy days of autumn we are having.

Their brilliant orange and black coats shimmered in the fragile sunrays and caught one’s eye in the layered shadows of the forest. The consensus from my first sampling indicates a rather normal winter trending toward the mild side of things.

However, the black bands on the rear of the little critter could call for some brief but cold and snowy periods late in the winter season. We’ll see.

Many scientists say that because these caterpillars live through two winters before spinning their cocoon, the colors reflect only the conditions of the previous winter. That doesn’t always work out.

Folklore has it that the wider the middle band of orange, the milder the winter weather will be.

Several of the woolly bears were a bit on the lazy side and, when disturbed, just curled up in a ball and remained like that for the longest while. Usually, they take right off on their wandering. Maybe they think curling up in front of a warm, cozy fireplace might just be the thing for winter. Think so?

The Oregon Chapter of the American Meteorology Society is sponsoring the 30th annual Winter Weather Forecast Conference at OMSI in Portland on Oct. 22. It is open to the public and will begin at 10 a.m. Meteorologists from across the Pacific Northwest will give their forecasts for the upcoming winter. What lies ahead this season, as La Nina returns for a rare third consecutive winter?

Skies will be hazy with smoke through Tuesday, with a little breakup Monday as a weak weather system slides by. Highs will continue to be much above average. We have had six days at 80 degrees or higher in October. We recorded our first overnight low in the 40s this month early Saturday in Vancouver.

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