The following is presented as part of The Columbian’s Opinion content, which offers a point of view in order to provoke thought and debate of civic issues. Opinions represent the viewpoint of the author. Unsigned editorials represent the consensus opinion of The Columbian’s editorial board, which operates independently of the news department.
Whichever party scores the most victories in the midterm elections, the halls of Congress and the nation’s statehouses are going to be filled next year with election deniers who questioned President Joe Biden’s 2020 victory.
The results will put many in position to enact further restrictions on voting rights, change traditional tabulation procedures and even challenge the 2024 results — though critics of the 2020 tally never produced valid evidence of significant fraud.
This probably won’t be a problem everywhere. But in at least two key swing states, Arizona and Nevada, Republican candidates who rejected the 2020 results have a chance to capture the office that supervises their election — secretary of state. In a third, Wisconsin, the possible election of a GOP governor could enable the gerrymandered Republican-controlled Legislature to enact restrictions the current Democratic governor blocked.
And in the nation’s capital, more than half of the Republican members in what is likely to be the new U.S. House majority voted in 2021 to reject Biden’s victories in Arizona and Pennsylvania, though election officials and judges from both parties rejected Trump’s unproven fraud claims there.
This prospect raises the question: What will these members and state officials do in 2024 in the event of another close election? Will they accept the will of voters, or will they substitute their own partisan preference, as many sought to do in 2021?
According to a recent New York Times/Siena College poll, 71 percent of Republicans said they would be comfortable in voting for a candidate who believed the 2020 election was stolen, compared with 12 percent of Democrats.
Because so many candidates who reject the 2020 results are Republicans running in safely Republican districts or states, this ensures that many of Tuesday’s winners will be people who rejected that outcome and might be prepared to do so again in 2024.
The extent of this problem was underscored by recent analyses by The New York Times and The Washington Post. According to The Post, 291 of 569 Republican candidates for Congress and top state positions have questioned the 2020 results, either at the time or since.
In some cases, there is potential for the kind of controversy this week at the state level that would mirror what happened when Trump refused to recognize the 2020 outcome and pressured friendly state officials and legislators to reverse it. At least eight GOP candidates for governor and six Senate hopefuls refused to say if they would accept the results if they lost.
An underlying factor in this situation remains Trump’s continued success in persuading many Republican voters he was robbed in 2020. In addition, the former president is continuing to seek changes in election procedures that he erroneously blames for his defeat.
In early September, according to several news organizations, Trump met with key associates to discuss how to persuade Pennsylvania GOP legislators to repeal a 2019 law — passed by a Republican-controlled legislature — allowing all voters to cast ballots by mail. Republicans are also challenging it in court.
If enough 2020 election deniers win Tuesday, measures restricting mail voting and enacting other curbs on voters could again be major issues when state legislatures meet next year. And the margins in three of the last six presidential elections have been razor thin.
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