Russia underestimated Ukraine’s resistance, U.S. officials say

WASHINGTON (AP) — The United States believes Russia underestimated the strength of Ukraine’s resistance before launching an invasion that has likely caused thousands of Russian casualties, the Biden administration’s top intelligence official told lawmakers Tuesday.

The testimony, in a hearing before the House Intelligence Committee, amounted to the first public disclosure by the nation’s most senior intelligence officials about how the 2-week-old war is proceeding, offering their insight into the thinking of Russian President Vladimir Putin as his forces continue their march through Ukraine.

The officials made clear their assessment that Russia’s assault has been slowed by unexpected resistance by Ukrainian defenders and that it was unclear if Putin planned a “maximalist” strategy to try to capture all of Ukraine or would settle for something short of that.

“We assess Putin feels aggrieved the West does not give him proper deference and perceives this as a war he cannot afford to lose,” Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines said. “But what he might be willing to accept as a victory may change over time given the significant costs he is incurring.”

The U.S. believes Putin had banked on capturing the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv within two days, CIA Director William Burns said.

“He was confident that he had modernized his military and they were capable of quick, decisive victory at minimum cost,” Burns said. “He’s been proven wrong on every count.”

Despite Putin’s announcement that he would raise Russia’s alert level for nuclear weapons, Haines said the U.S. has not observed unusual changes in Russia’s nuclear force posture.

Several officials pledged their agencies’ full effort to supporting the Ukrainian resistance. Much of the intelligence community’s work in Ukraine likely will take place in secret. But FBI Director Chris Wray said that at Ukraine’s request, the bureau had worked with social media companies to take down accounts linked to Russia that were spreading Ukrainian military disinformation.